Hormuz deployment issue leaves president with no risk-free options

President Lee Jae Myung is confronting a major dilemma over whether to deploy troops to the Strait of Hormuz, with the prolonged crisis in the Middle East leaving him caught between conflicting national interests with little room for compromise.

The United States, Korea's most important security ally, is intensifying pressure on Seoul to make a military contribution to U.S.-led operations as its war with Iran drags on.

Making a military contribution may satisfy Washington and could lead to progress on other bilateral security and economic issues, but Tehran has warned that any Korean military involvement, including noncombat support, will have “serious consequences.” In addition, deployment could also trigger a strong domestic backlash, especially from liberal voters who form the backbone of support for Lee and the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK).

On the other hand, refusing to join the war could invite retaliatory measures from Washington and complicate pending issues such as tariff negotiations, which could also affect domestic politics.

“The dilemma goes to the heart of what Lee has described as 'pragmatic diplomacy,'” said Kwak Jin-o, a research professor at Pai Chai University, referring to the president's diplomatic principle of flexibility and prioritizing national interests over ideology as security and economic issues become increasingly intertwined.

“Pragmatic diplomacy works best when Korea has room to maneuver between competing partners,” Kwak said, adding that the Hormuz crisis is different because Washington and Tehran are effectively asking Seoul to clarify where it stands.

“Lee is being forced to take a side precisely when his foreign policy has been designed to avoid such binary decisions.”

A researcher at a security think tank, on condition of anonymity, voiced a similar view.

“The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz leaves Lee with no obvious option that can satisfy both Washington and Tehran and advance his pragmatic foreign policy,” the researcher said.

“Washington occupies an indispensable place in that strategy, as the alliance remains the foundation of Seoul’s security, particularly in deterring Pyongyang. At the same time, Seoul can ill afford to antagonize Tehran, given Korea’s energy interests, the safety of its ships and citizens in the Middle East and more than six decades of bilateral ties,” he added.

Approval at risk, regardless of deployment

Lee has little room to maneuver, with public opinion divided nearly evenly over whether Korea should make a military contribution.

A Hangil Research survey commissioned by Kuki News showed on Wednesday that 47.1 percent of 1,018 adults opposed deploying Korean military assets, while 43 percent supported such a move.

More troubling politically for Lee, opposition reached 62.4 percent among self-described liberals and 55.5 percent among supporters of the ruling DPK. Among respondents who approved of Lee's performance, 55.3 percent opposed deployment.

Even before the Hormuz crisis emerged as a major political challenge, Lee’s approval rating had been falling for weeks amid public frustration over domestic issues, including real estate policies, controversial financial products and personnel appointments.

The situation recalls that of former President Roh Moo-hyun, another liberal president who decided to send additional Korean troops to Iraq in 2004, despite fierce resistance from his supporters.

A September 2003 poll showed that 60.4 percent of voters who had supported Roh in the 2002 presidential election opposed the planned deployment at Washington’s request.

Roh's approval rating subsequently continued to slide, with a separate poll showing it falling to 25 percent right after the decision to send troops.

The Iraq deployment was not the sole cause of the decline, but it was widely seen as one of several issues that alienated his supporters.

Other parties are also opposing the deployment. Kim Joon-hyung, floor leader of the minor liberal Rebuilding Korea Party, said on Friday, "Deployment is a red line that the government should never cross ... I clearly warn: Do not cross the line."

The Hangil Research poll was conducted from Sept. 5 to 7, with the 4.1 percentage point gap falling within its margin of error. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.