Trump may accelerate strategic flexibility push for USFK over ally dissatisfaction: Seoul analyst

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., Monday. Reuters-Yonhap

U.S. President Donald Trump may increase his push for strategic flexibility for U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in response to his growing dissatisfaction with allies, including South Korea, in the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, a security analyst in Seoul said Thursday.

Strategic flexibility refers to the ability to redeploy forces stationed in one country to other regions with agility to respond to global contingencies.

The analyst’s projection came after a Wall Street Journal report, Wednesday, that Trump threatened to pull out American troops from NATO member nations that were "unhelpful" during the conflict with Iran before reaching a conditional ceasefire agreement, Tuesday. His administration may consider deploying the troops to other countries that were more supportive, it reported.

Trump has been using U.S. military forces stationed abroad to exert pressure on countries he is dissatisfied with.

Not only NATO members but also South Korea and Japan have been repeatedly mentioned in Trump’s speeches as allies that were not helpful despite U.S. protection from challenges including North Korea’s nuclear threats.

“You know who else didn’t help us? South Korea didn’t help us,” Trump said, Monday, in a White House press briefing.

“We have 45,000 people, soldiers in harm’s way and right next to (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-un with a lot of nuclear weapons,” he said while overstating the number of U.S. troops here; South Korea hosts about 28,500.

“There is a possibility that American troops stationed in NATO member countries could be shifted to the Indo-Pacific, where countering China has become a far more important strategic objective,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.

In that sense, the professor said USFK is unlikely to be scaled down given the China factor. However, he noted the role of USFK could shift from deterrence against North Korea to containing China as part of the strategic flexibility.

"It's possible that the U.S. will make USFK focus more on containing China," he said.

The professor noted that both South Korea and Japan rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz — a focal chokepoint in the Iran conflict — to transport crude oil from the Middle East, adding the Trump administration may attempt to take advantage of this.

“Having spent enormous sums on defense, Trump may seek to recover costs by taking advantage of Seoul and Tokyo's high dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, for example, demanding contributions to military expenditures,” he said.

He also cited the possibility of Washington’s use of Section 301 of the Trade Act, which allows the U.S. to impose unlimited tariffs in response to “unfair” trade practices, amid the protracted Seoul-Washington trade negotiations.

Asked about the influence of Trump's stance toward allies on wartime operational control (OPCON) transfer from Washington to Seoul, Park said Trump may seek to speed up the transfer, since it will give USFK more room to focus on China.

The speedy OPCON transfer is in line with the policy of President Lee Jae Myung's administration, which seeks to complete the transfer before his term ends in 2030.

Last week, Lee told a delegation of U.S. senators that South Korea “not only intends to increase military spending but also to reduce the U.S. burden by reclaiming wartime OPCON.”