Takaichi's landslide win revives Japan's constitutional revision debate

Japan's Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi places a red paper rose on the name of an elected candidate at the LDP's headquarters during the House of Representatives election in Tokyo, Sunday. AFP-Yonhap

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has signaled renewed momentum for revising the country’s pacifist constitution after securing a decisive victory in an early general election widely viewed as a confidence vote on her leadership.

While experts say a constitutional revision is unlikely in the near term, they expect debate to intensify in the coming years. Analysts also predict that the foundations of Seoul-Tokyo relations are unlikely to be fundamentally shaken.

In the election, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 316 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, surpassing the 310-seat threshold required to initiate a constitutional amendment. When combined with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, which secured 36 seats, the ruling bloc controls an overwhelming 352 seats. This marks the first time a single ruling party has exceeded the constitutional amendment threshold on its own.

Takaichi said in an appearance on a local television network the day before that revising the constitution remains a core objective for the LDP. She said political parties were preparing their own proposals and that she would welcome formal deliberation of concrete draft amendments in the Diet’s Constitutional Review Committee.

Given Takaichi’s long-standing push to revise Article 9 — the Japanese constitution’s so-called "peace clause" — debate over the provision now appears inevitable. Adopted after Japan’s 1945 defeat in World War II, Article 9 renounces the use of force, bars maintaining armed forces with the capacity for war and denies the state the right of belligerency.

Choi Eun-mi, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said conditions are now in place for Takaichi to pursue her long-held goal.

“Although neighboring countries, including South Korea, may feel uneasy, the trend toward constitutional revision will likely intensify,” she told The Korea Times Monday. “At the very least, the government is expected to sustain this momentum through the next House of Councillors election, scheduled for roughly two years from now.”

Choi added that Takaichi’s popularity appeared to stem from the decisiveness and clarity she has shown over the past three months — qualities many voters felt had been missing since the Shinzo Abe era — and that this leadership style was likely to continue.

Japan's Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi speaks with media on the House of Representatives election day at LDP headquarters in Tokyo, Monday. AFP-Yonhap

Still, not all experts see immediate cause for alarm.

Yang Ki-ho, professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University, argued that fears over an imminent revision of the peace constitution may be overstated.

“To amend the constitution, a two-thirds majority is required in both houses of the Diet,” he noted. “In the House of Councillors, the ruling camp holds only about 120 seats — short of a majority — even with coalition partners. The next upper house election is not until July 2028, more than two and a half years away.”

Yang also said Takaichi’s strong leadership is likely to prolong difficulties in Japan-China relations, but emphasized that Tokyo is keenly aware it cannot afford to antagonize South Korea at the same time. As a result, he does not expect a major disruption in bilateral cooperation.

However, Yang warned that the overwhelming support for the prime minister signaled a broader conservative shift, with right-wing forces increasingly consolidated, raising the possibility that historical disputes could resurface — including over Dokdo; visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which honors convicted war criminals; and history textbooks that downplay Japan’s World War II atrocities.

“The risk is that these issues could gain momentum rapidly, without sufficient political braking,” Yang said. “If Seoul-Tokyo relations deteriorate, Seoul needs to have a clear plan B. Although both leaders share an understanding that stability is important, the two countries still lack robust bilateral crisis-management mechanisms or platforms.”

Both Yang and Choi also pointed out that as Japan increases defense spending and relaxes restrictions on arms exports, South Korea and Japan could emerge as direct competitors and strong rivals in the global defense industry.

Yang also warned that as Japan deepens its alliance with the United States and seeks a larger role in regional security, South Korea could risk being sidelined in discussions on North Korean and Northeast Asian security issues.

President Lee Jae Myung shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after a joint press statement at a summit in Nara prefecture, Japan, Jan. 13. Yonhap

President Lee Jae Myung congratulated Takaichi on her party's victory in the House of Representatives election. In a message posted Monday on X, formerly known as Twitter, Lee said he hoped Japan would continue to prosper under Takaichi’s leadership.

Recalling the bilateral summit held in Japan's Nara Prefecture in January, he said the two countries had “taken vigorous steps together toward a new 60-year era,” and expressed his expectation that bilateral cooperation would continue to deepen and expand on the basis of mutual trust and strong ties.

Lee added that he looked forward to welcoming Prime Minister Takaichi to South Korea in the near future through the next round of summit diplomacy.