AnalysisTrump won't use 'Venezuela model' on Kim Jong-un: experts

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talk during a meeting at Panmunjeom in the South Korean side of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, in this photo from June 30, 2019. AFP-Yonhap

The U.S. government's recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has prompted a question in Seoul: Could the Donald Trump administration attempt a similar operation against North Korean leader Kim Jong-un?

U.S. forces seized Maduro in a surprise overnight operation early Saturday (local time) and flew him to New York, where he is set to stand trial on narco-terrorism conspiracy charges.

Some South Korean politicians argue that the precedent could, at least in theory, be extended to North Korea.

Rep. Lee Jun-seok, leader of the minor opposition Reform Party, pointed to Washington's decision to label Maduro not as a "head of state" but as the "leader of a transnational crime ring."

"The logic applied to President Maduro could also be applied to the North Korean leader," Lee wrote on Facebook. He noted that the U.S. Department of Justice previously indicted North Korean hackers in 2021, describing them as the "world's leading bank robbers."

Security experts, however, say a similar operation against Kim is highly unlikely.

Cheong Seong-chang, vice president of the Sejong Institute, said Pyongyang's expanding nuclear arsenal would make such an operation virtually impossible.

Although the U.S. government does maintain a so-called "decapitation plan" aimed at eliminating or capturing Kim, carrying it out is an entirely different matter, he said.

Last October, the reclusive regime unveiled the Hwasong-20 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, believed to be capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

"Should Kim Jong-un be captured by U.S. special forces, Pak Jong-chon — the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea, who would assume control of nuclear weapons — would threaten to launch nuclear attacks against the U.S. or its ally South Korea, unless Kim Jong-un is immediately returned,” Cheong said.

"In such a scenario, the U.S. would have no choice but to return Kim."

Liberal civic groups hold a press conference near the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, Monday, denouncing the U.S. government's military operation in Venezuela that removed its president, Nicolas Maduro. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

Beyond the military risks, the intelligence requirements alone would be challenging.

According to U.S. authorities, a CIA team had closely monitored Maduro for months in the lead-up to the operation, tracking his daily routines through human sources and a fleet of stealth drones. Such a level of surveillance inside North Korea's tightly controlled system would be far more difficult, experts say.

Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies, also dismissed the idea as far-fetched.

"With China and Russia backing North Korea, the U.S. cannot carry out a strike on Pyongyang," he said. "And without consulting South Korea, its ally, executing such a military operation on the Korean Peninsula would be impossible."

Critics also question whether Trump himself would be willing to take the political risks of capturing and removing Kim. Maduro's arrest reflected domestic political calculations in Washington, driven by the Trump administration's war on foreign drug cartels and interest in Venezuela's oil industry.

By contrast, North Korea's nuclear program — although a grave threat to the international community — is less entangled with U.S. domestic politics and broader geopolitical calculations.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un oversees the test-launch of hypersonic missiles, Sunday, in this photo carried the following day on the North's state-run Korean Central Television. Yonhap

Even so, Washington's surprise operation against the Venezuelan president appears to have rattled Pyongyang.

The North's state-run Korean Central News Agency on Monday quoted Kim, who oversaw a hypersonic missile test the previous day, saying, "To be honest, our such activity is clearly aimed at gradually putting the nuclear war deterrent on a high-developed basis. Why it is necessary is exemplified by the recent geopolitical crisis and complicated international events."

While Kim did not specify what he meant by the "recent geopolitical crisis," North Korea's leadership appears to be closely watching developments in Venezuela. The previous day, Pyongyang denounced what it called the "rogue and brutal nature of the U.S." in reference to Maduro's capture.

"North Korea will closely monitor the Venezuela situation and exploit it as propaganda to justify its development of nuclear weapons, missiles and conventional arms," Cheong said.