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What's at stake for Lee in upcoming visit to China?

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Lee-Xi summit expected to focus on economic cooperation, cultural exchange rather than sensitive security issues

President Lee Jae Myung shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a bilateral summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Nov. 1, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Yonhap

President Lee Jae Myung shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a bilateral summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Nov. 1, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Yonhap

President Lee Jae Myung is set to visit Beijing next week for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, drawing attention to whether the rare trip by a South Korean leader will yield tangible results as long-strained bilateral ties show signs of improvement.

Analysts say that while the two sides are unlikely to reach concrete agreements on sensitive security issues, progress could be made in economic and cultural areas.

According to the presidential office, Lee will depart on Sunday for a four-day visit to China. He will spend three days in Beijing, where the summit with Xi will be held, before traveling to Shanghai on Tuesday.

The trip will mark the first visit by a South Korean president to China in nine years.

Relations between Seoul and Beijing have been cool for much of that period, though signs of improvement emerged after the two leaders met in November on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province.

Still, Lee's visit comes at a sensitive moment, with the two countries remaining far apart on key security issues.

South Korea has been urging China to play a more active role in efforts to denuclearize Pyongyang. Beijing, however, has remained reluctant to engage deeply on the issue.

"North Korea's denuclearization may not even be a formal item on the agenda in the upcoming summit," said Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. "Lee may outline South Korea's position and urge China to play a constructive role in denuclearization, but Beijing is unlikely to respond openly given its improving relationship with Pyongyang."

Visitors walk past a surveillance camera and a Chinese flag on Pingtan island in eastern China's Fujian province, the nation's closest point to Taiwan, Tuesday. China held a second day of military drills around Taiwan on Dec. 30, marking the sixth major maneuver Beijing has held near the self-governed island in recent years. AFP-Yonhap

Visitors walk past a surveillance camera and a Chinese flag on Pingtan island in eastern China's Fujian province, the nation's closest point to Taiwan, Tuesday. China held a second day of military drills around Taiwan on Dec. 30, marking the sixth major maneuver Beijing has held near the self-governed island in recent years. AFP-Yonhap

Another point of friction is South Korea's plan to build a nuclear-powered submarine with U.S. support. The initiative has gained momentum as Seoul and Washington move to advance talks on the U.S. supply of nuclear material. China has already voiced unease over the plan, viewing it as a security threat and an expansion of U.S. influence in the region.

Given these constraints, attention is likely to focus on economic cooperation, including accelerating follow-up negotiations on the second phase of the two countries' bilateral free trade agreement (FTA).

The first phase of the FTA, which took effect in 2015, eliminated tariffs on a range of major goods. A second-phase deal would broaden market access to services and investment sectors such as finance, telecommunications and legal services.

Cultural exchanges could also see improvement, as some observers in Seoul suggest Beijing may soon lift the so-called "Hallyu ban," referring to restrictions on South Korean pop culture.

Since South Korea's deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in 2016, China has imposed a de facto ban on South Korean cultural content, including limits on K-pop performers appearing in China. Chinese authorities have never formally acknowledged the ban.

"Cultural and people-to-people exchanges tend to be less directly affected by politics. If the two leaders signal a willingness to expand cultural cooperation, that alone could be seen as a positive step," Kang said.