Dialogue momentum may arise in 2026 to revive stalled NK-US diplomacy: think tank

The front area of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA) building / Captured from KNDA

The dialogue momentum for the United States and North Korea may arise next year based on cooperation between South Korea and the U.S., creating room for a possible breakthrough in the stalled diplomacy with Pyongyang, a think tank said Tuesday.

The foreign ministry-affiliated Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA) gave the outlook in its annual forecast report on international relations for 2026, citing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's indications that he has not completely ruled out talks.

"Based on cooperation between South Korea and the United States, opportunities might be created to revive North Korea–U.S. summit diplomacy and improve bilateral relations," Min Jeong-hoon, an analyst at the KNDA, said in the report.

"While such momentum has not gained traction despite U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated calls for talks, Kim's remarks about returning to dialogue indicate that he is willing to improve relations with the U.S. and could return to the negotiating table if conditions for dialogue are in place," he said.

Min said that Seoul and Washington will focus on creating "concrete conditions" that could bring Kim back to dialogue, predicting that communication and cooperation between the allies will intensify to enable another Kim-Trump summit around the time of Trump's potential visit to China in April next year.

South Korea and the U.S. will likely establish a "realistic" denuclearization process in this regard, and there is a high possibility of crafting specific measures for denuclearization that will be acceptable to both North Korea and the U.S., Min said.

On the other hand, inter-Korean ties are expected to make little progress despite the rapprochement by President Lee Jae Myung's government toward Pyongyang, as the North maintains its approach of treating its relationship with the South as "two states hostile to each other," the report said.

"North Korea is expected to focus on strengthening ties with Russia and largely avoid inter-Korean dialogue," it said.

Even if North Korea resumes talks with the U.S., the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue will not be easy for a considerable time, the report said.

The report said that the lack of progress in efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine will likely lead North Korea to see little incentive to improve relations with the South.

However, if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches a resolution, Seoul is expected to push more aggressively for inter-Korean talks, the report added.