Tokyo–Beijing rift over Taiwan jeopardizes key Korea-Japan-China cooperation

Japanese Director-General of the Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Masaaki Kanai, left, and Chinese Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs Liu Jinsong, center, depart after a meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Beijing on Tuesday. Yonhap-AFP.

Tensions in Northeast Asia are escalating as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan reignite discord between China and Japan.

When the foreign ministers of Korea, Japan and China met in Tokyo in March, they agreed to accelerate preparations for a trilateral summit, but the widening rift has now derailed the long-awaited meeting.

Japanese media reported earlier this week that China has rejected Japan’s proposal to hold the trilateral leaders’ summit in January. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning confirmed on Monday that there was no agreement on when to hold a proposed meeting between the three countries’ leaders.

She added that Takaichi's remarks had “undermined the foundation and atmosphere for trilateral cooperation.”

Takaichi, the new Japanese leader, told a parliamentary committee earlier that a Chinese naval blockade or other actions toward the self-ruled island could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, possibly allowing it to exercise its right to self-defense.

Her comments were notably stronger than those of her predecessors, who voiced concern over Chinese threats against Taiwan but avoided specifying Japan’s response. While Takaichi did not retract her remarks, she said she would avoid discussing specific scenarios in the future.

Beijing has expressed its fury through a series of measures, including study and travel advisories for Japan, a freeze on Japanese films in Chinese theaters and a suspension of city-level exchanges. Chinese officials reportedly told Tokyo that imports of Japanese seafood, recently resumed, will be stopped.

Diplomatic experts said that there seem to be “no quick resolutions” to the current spiraling tensions, which will eventually have a spillover effect on trilateral frameworks with Korea.

The trilateral leaders’ summit between Korea, China and Japan, first initiated in 2008, has been repeatedly disrupted by bilateral disputes, including China-Japan territorial tensions over the Diaoyu Islands in 2012. Diplomatic observers noted that similar disruptions are again likely.

Escalating tensions between China and Japan have prompted Chinese travelers to cancel hundreds of thousands of trips to Japan. Yonhap.

Zheng Zhihua, an associate professor at the Center for Japanese Studies in Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said that an “indefinite suspension” of trilateral leaders’ dialogue is probable.

He pointed to Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s refusal to meet Takaichi during the recent G20 summit in South Africa.

“With Japan hosting the next trilateral summit, and leaders having to travel to Japan, Beijing would feel the current diplomatic climate is far from conducive to advancing dialogue.”

Without the leader-level meeting, some major initiatives are unlikely to be pushed forward, according to Zhang Muhui, an associate professor of East Asian Studies at Sungkyungkwan University.

China-Japan-Korea (CJK) trilateralism is built on a “summit-minister-working level” framework. Leaders’ summits are a chance to bring together the political visions of the leaders, acting as powerful engines that shape and set the agenda for their collaborative efforts, he explained.

“Important projects, such as accelerating negotiations on upgrading a free trade agreement or launching a new ministerial-level mechanism, require a summit-level meeting where the three national leaders jointly sign a declaration to finalize matters,” he said, adding that existing operation-level work will see less impact.

He noted that three state leaders share a tacit consensus that the trilateral cooperation framework focuses on “soft” issues directly linked to improving people’s livelihoods, rather than expanding into sensitive domains like diplomacy, security or strategic issues.

“But in recent years, significant proposals like the ‘CJK Plus’ cooperation mechanism and the CJK Cooperation Fund have struggled to gain traction within the framework,” he noted.

The idea of “CJK Plus” cooperation is rooted in expanding the scope of trilateral cooperation and ensuring their collaboration benefits other nations and regions while reducing regional development gaps. Meanwhile, the trilateral cooperation fund commits to providing financial support to collaborative projects among the three nations.

At the last meeting, leaders agreed to prioritize cooperation in key areas, including people-to-people exchanges, sustainable development, economic cooperation and trade, public health and aging societies, science and technology, digital transformation and disaster relief.

Leaders from Korea, Japan and China gather in Seoul for a trilateral summit in May 2024. Courtesy of Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

However, experts noted that shifting international dynamics may make cooperation on trade and technology more difficult.

Kim Baek-ju, a senior researcher specializing in Japanese affairs at Sogang University, told The Korea Times that the trilateral cooperation among the three countries, especially in areas critical to U.S.-China competition, faces severe limitations.

The reliance of Seoul and Tokyo on U.S. security guarantees prevents them from standing together with Beijing to defend the global economic order, Kim added.

“The chances of meaningful progress on cooperation in the future appear increasingly slim,” he said.

According to Kim, this is because countries perceive each other as “changing the status quo," with Japan and the U.S. labeling China as a “revisionist force."

“On the other hand, China is convinced, through incidents like Takaichi’s remarks, that Japan and the U.S. are breaking their commitment to the One China policy.”

“Unless both sides clearly prove through ‘action’ that this is not the case, the trilateral cooperation framework will remain a limited and symbolic organization with clear constraints,” Kim added.

Jang Soo-jin, a Korea-based analyst with the geopolitical risk consultancy group NorthStar Insights, said that for the summit to move forward as planned, diplomatic friction between China and Japan needs to stabilize to a manageable level, but it is unlikely in the short term.

“As a newly inaugurated leader, Takaichi is unlikely to lower the tone of her China-related statements quickly, given the need to consider her ruling party’s core support base,” Jang said.

She noted that people-to-people exchanges could be the most affected among the six cooperation areas of the trilateral framework, citing China’s restrictions on travel and Japanese culture, as well as rising negative sentiment in both countries.

“South Korea has presented a vision for expanding cooperation in areas such as sustainable development, education and people-to-people exchanges, but worsening China-Japan relations would likely weaken the momentum behind these multilateral initiatives,” Jang said.

“Substantive cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea would require a ‘mediator,’ yet none of the three nations is well-positioned to fulfill this role,” Kim said.

“While some suggest entrusting this role to South Korea, it also has separate disagreements with both countries, and neither China nor Japan would wish Korea to take on this role.”

Alyssa Chen is a reporter with the South China Morning Post. She is currently based in Seoul, writing for both The Korea Times and the South China Morning Post under an exchange program.