KorAsia Forum looks for answers in transforming world

Geopolitical shifts challenge Korea’s foreign policy strategy

Lim Sung-nam, former first vice minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, delivers a keynote speech during this year's KorAsia Forum held at the FKI Plaza in Seoul, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Min Kyung-seok

As the world order is recast by sharpened rivalries and a more transactional brand of diplomacy, South Korea finds itself rethinking its strategic role amid a geopolitical shift that analysts say is unmatched in recent decades.

That shifting geopolitical landscape was the focus of Thursday’s KorAsia Forum, “A Turbulent World, Korea’s Choice,” held at the FKI Plaza in Yeouido, Seoul, and hosted by Hankook Ilbo and its sister paper The Korea Times. In a keynote address, former First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Lim Sung-nam said the United States is evolving “from a benevolent hegemon to a reciprocal hegemon,” adding that since 2018 the world has been moving away from the globalization model that defined more than three decades of post-Cold War history.

Lim described the potential policy direction of the second Trump administration as one of “America First transactionalism,” characterized by a retreat from multilateralism and the adoption of selective expansionism, signaling a fundamental change in geopolitical era.

One of the most consequential shifts, he said, is Washington’s decision to seek financial compensation for things once provided as global public goods, notably its security umbrella and the dollar-centered financial system, which have long underpinned international stability without direct cost to allies.

He outlined the key pillars of current U.S. strategic thinking: tightened border control, pursuit of manufacturing dominance, preservation of the dollar’s reserve currency status and maintenance of overwhelming military strength. However, he cautioned that aggressive border policies could ultimately weaken U.S. hegemony.

“The recent raid on LG and Hyundai facilities in Georgia is an extension of the ‘shut the border’ policy,” Lim said. “History shows that when empires such as Rome or the Tang Dynasty closed their borders, they ceased attracting talent and capital, accelerating their decline. The same risk now looms over the U.S.,” he cautioned.

Lim painted a stark picture of the current U.S. economic dilemma: the strong dollar has eroded price competitiveness, driving annual trade deficits close to $1 trillion, hollowing out manufacturing, eliminating jobs and swelling national debt to over $38 trillion, with $1 trillion in annual interest payments alone. This, he warned, has led to aging infrastructure and the erosion of strategic industries like shipbuilding, which in turn undermines the very foundations of U.S. global leadership.

Turning to U.S.-China relations, he noted that the relationship historically evolves in 20- to 30-year cycles. Despite deepening strategic rivalry, the two remain structurally interdependent “like conjoined twins.” While the U.S. seeks to “Make America Great Again,” China pursues the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” both striving to preserve and expand their hegemonic power.

He emphasized that Washington’s approach is no longer a full-scale “decoupling,” but rather “de-risking,” and predicted enduring geopolitical uncertainty between the two powers for at least the next two to three decades.

Min Jeong-hun, professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, suggested that U.S.–North Korea relations may experience a thaw, as both sides increasingly view limited engagement as more beneficial than a no-deal approach, recognizing that Pyongyang is unlikely to relinquish its advanced nuclear capabilities.

Cho Young-nam, professor at Seoul National University’s Graduate School of International Studies, speaks during this year's KorAsia Forum held at the FKI Plaza in Seoul, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Hong In-ki

Cho Young-nam, professor at Seoul National University’s Graduate School of International Studies, explained that Xi Jinping is pursuing a long-term superpower strategy, with the goal of raising China’s per-capita GDP to $20,000 or more by 2035, as well as fully modernizing the nation by 2050 to position itself as a direct rival to the U.S. He attributed China’s rapid advancement to the rise of technocratic leadership, particularly in aerospace, advanced manufacturing and other strategic sectors under the country’s “New Quality Development” initiative.

Cho said Xi’s leadership remains firmly consolidated, and that the so-called “2027 Taiwan crisis” should not be viewed as an imminent invasion, but rather China’s target year to acquire the capability to invade.

He warned that if the U.S. continues to shut its borders and restrict foreign talent, including international students, it could face a weakening in its national power by the 2030s, potentially prompting a gradual reduction in its military presence in Asia.

Kim Seun-rae, professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, urged policymakers to take a broader view of North Korea-Russia cooperation, suggesting that closer ties might paradoxically contribute to greater stability on the Korean Peninsula.

He also reiterated his earlier prediction that the war in Ukraine, having erupted during a period of global realignment, is likely to be prolonged and may serve as a catalyst for a transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order.

Panelists engage in discussion during this year's KorAsia Forum held at the FKI Plaza in Seoul, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Hong In-ki

In his congratulatory remarks, President Lee Jae Myung emphasized that stronger international solidarity and cooperation are essential pillars for peace and shared prosperity amid profound changes in the global order. He noted that this year’s forum, which has long served as a platform for dialogue between Korea and other Asian nations, is particularly timely given the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape and intensifying great-power competition centered on Northeast Asia.