China wary of South Korea’s nuclear sub plan, urged to show restraint

Chinese Ambassador to Korea Dai Bing (second from left) delivers a congratulatory address at the Korea-China think tank dialogue, held by the Institute for Global Strategy and Cooperation (IGSC) and the Beijing-based Global Governance Institution, in Seoul on Tuesday. Courtesy of IGSC

South Korea’s renewed drive to acquire nuclear-powered submarines could potentially affect the recent thaw in relations with China, analysts said at a forum on Korea-China relations in Seoul earlier this week.

The United States gave South Korea an unprecedented green light to develop nuclear-powered submarines following a summit last month between President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings.

In a forum organized by the Seoul-based Institute for Global Strategy and Cooperation and the Beijing-based Global Governance Institution, experts hailed the positive momentum for bilateral ties gained after the leaders’ summit between the South Korean president and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Nov. 1.

Hwang Jae-ho, director of the Global Strategic Cooperation Research Institute, noted that South Korea-China relations are at a pivotal moment of leaping into a “second phase” under new conditions, where new cooperation and practical measures are essential.

Chinese ambassador to South Korea Dai Bing noted in his congratulatory remarks that third countries, including the United States, exert significant influence on South Korea-China relations.

“South Korea-China relations are not directed at third countries, nor are they subject to their constraints,” Dai said.

During his visit to South Korea late last month, Trump announced that he had authorized Seoul to develop its first nuclear-powered submarine, marking a departure from more than seven decades of U.S. nonproliferation policy.

Experts attending the forum expressed worries that Seoul’s nuclear sub push could become a source of subtle tension in Beijing-Seoul ties, similar to the situation in 2016.

Bilateral relations between South Korea and China suffered a major blow in 2016 after South Korea deployed the U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in response to growing nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.

China reacted angrily to the decision. At that time, Beijing retaliated by suspending Chinese group tours to South Korea and dismantling the business operation of South Korean retail giant Lotte in China, as its land had been used for the missile system.

Xin Qiang, professor and Deputy Director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, who participated in the forum virtually, said that the leaders’ meeting served as a turning point for bilateral ties, allowing it to bottom out and recover.

Participants of the Korea-China Think Tank Dialogue forum pose for a commemorative photo in Seoul on Tuesday. Courtesy of Institute for Global Strategy and Cooperation

However, he cautioned, “We must also be wary of (Seoul’s acquisition of) nuclear-powered submarines becoming another THAAD incident in bilateral relations, and the issue should be handled with caution.”

Meanwhile, Hong Hyun-ik, senior fellow at the Sejong Institute and the former chancellor of Korea National Diplomatic Academy, noted Beijing’s “heightened vigilance” towards the project.

He added that South Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear-powered submarine stems directly from the threat posed by North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and submarines.

“The nuclear submarine issue is also necessary because we feel threatened (by North Korea). If China doesn’t overreact, our people and government will actively work to improve bilateral relations,” Hong said.

Xin later told The Korea Times that Beijing has yet to strongly respond to the development at this early stage.

“This is possibly because China sees no need now to disrupt the current atmosphere in China-Korea ties, with Lee newly in office. Additionally, the project is still in its early stages, and there is considerable doubt over whether it will move forward or gain traction in the next steps.”

The expert pointed out that South Korea’s nuclear-powered sub project could face similar challenges seen in Australia’s AUKUS deal. With delays in U.S. shipbuilding and submarine production and potential shifts in thinking in the U.S., the timeline for Australia to acquire submarines remains unclear.

“If (Seoul’s) submarine project moves forward with concrete actions, China is unlikely to stand idly. At that point, it could become another flash point,” Xin added.

Alyssa Chen is a China reporter with the South China Morning Post. She is currently based in Seoul, writing for both The Korea Times and the South China Morning Post under an exchange program.