POLL Koreans expect Trump-Xi meeting at APEC to ease trade tensions

Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, meets with U.S. President Donald Trump during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. AP-Yonhap

Koreans see U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming summit as the highlight of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) events, a recent survey commissioned by The Korea Times showed Monday.

With world leaders set to gather this week in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, for the APEC meetings, the surveyed Koreans demonstrated a view of Trump and Xi's visits here primarily in the context of their intensifying rivalry in trade and other geopolitical affairs.

They showed this view of the international gathering in the poll conducted by Hankook Research at the request of The Korea Times to mark the APEC summit and commemorate the newspaper’s 75th anniversary, which falls on Nov. 1.

According to the poll conducted for two days beginning Thursday, 30 percent of the 1,004 respondents said Trump’s visit is meaningful as his bilateral summit with Xi is expected to ease global trade tensions.

The two nations have been in a prolonged confrontation over tariffs after the U.S. imposed high levies on Chinese products and China retaliated with its own tariffs on American goods. They also recently clashed over China's plan to control exports of rare earths.

Another 27 percent expected Trump's visit to advance ongoing tariff negotiations between Seoul and Washington. The two countries reached a broad deal to set the U.S. tariff on Korean goods at 15 percent, lower than the previously threatened 25 percent, but have remained in a deadlock over the deal's details since, especially about how Korea will provide a $350 billion investment to the U.S.

Officials from Korea visited Washington hoping to wrap up the negotiations before the APEC events, so the deal could be signed during Trump's visit here. However, the negotiations remain stalled, and the respondents expressed hope that Trump's planned summit with President Lee Jae Myung will result in a breakthrough.

Another 18 percent said the visit could help to resolve security issues concerning the Korean Peninsula, such as facilitating inter-Korean dialogue or improving U.S.-North Korea relations.

The survey was conducted before Trump reiterated his stance in Washington on Friday (local time) that he was open to meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which could shift public opinion if such a meeting actually takes place.

However, another 18 percent said Trump’s visit loses significance because he will skip the Economic Leaders' Meeting, the main APEC event slated for Friday and Saturday, and return home after only participating in the APEC CEO Summit and some bilateral talks.

This figure was notably higher among conservative voters, 25 percent, compared to liberals' 10 percent, suggesting that some conservatives were reluctant to give liberal President Lee’s government political credit for hosting the meeting.

Xi's visit also drew attention in the context of its rivalry with the U.S., as 41 percent of respondents said it was intended primarily to “counter the U.S. and expand influence over middle powers.” This suggests that many Koreans regard Xi’s visit as an attempt to assert China’s influence in the region.

But at the same time, 20 percent said Xi’s visit carried “no major significance” beyond attending as the leader of the next APEC host economy. The figure was also high among conservatives, indicating they were reluctant to highlight Xi's visit to Korea as a major political event, even though it will mark Xi's first visit to the country in 11 years.

The poll also showed Koreans believe China may no longer hold major influence on the North Korea issue, as only 14 percent said Xi's visit would help ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and restart denuclearization talks.

In addition, 12 percent viewed Xi’s visit as a sign of restarting cultural and people-to-people exchanges that had been largely suspended after a dispute over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system deployment and the COVID-19 pandemic, while 9 percent said it pointed to the normalization of economic ties following years of China's trade retaliation over the THAAD issue.

When asked which APEC member economy has the greatest global influence, an overwhelming majority, or 71 percent of respondents, chose the U.S. Another 11 percent selected Korea, while 8 percent chose China.

While China is usually considered a major power alongside the U.S. in economic and geopolitical influence, the poll's respondents ranked Korea above China.

The Korea Times commissioned the survey to gauge public sentiment. Hankook Research surveyed 1,004 adults nationwide in phone interviews on Thursday and Friday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with a credibility rate of 95 percent. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.