AnalysisAfter summit, questions remain on defense costs, alliance and N. Korea

President Lee Jae Myung attends the naming ceremony for the TS State of Maine at Hanwha Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia, Pa., Tuesday (local time). Yonhap

The first summit between President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump concluded without incident, defying expectations of friction.

After nearly two hours of talks at the White House, the two leaders presented a cordial front. However, analysts noted that significant questions remain unresolved, from how much Seoul will increase its defense spending to whether reshaping the bilateral alliance could eventually mean fewer American troops on the Korean Peninsula. Equally uncertain is how North Korea will respond to Trump’s pledge to reengage.

For now, analysts said, the absence of explicit demands from Trump was significant in itself. Many had expected him to present Seoul with a hefty security bill to maintain the 28,500 American troops stationed on the Korean Peninsula, either by pressing for higher cost-sharing or by raising the prospect of reductions. But no such moment ever came.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said the outcome was better than many had anticipated.

“This summit took place on an uneven playing field, so [South] Korea’s priority was to minimize losses,” he said. “The fact that no new bill was presented is fortunate.”

Ha Sang-wook, a professor at Sogang University, made a similar observation, noting that Trump did not directly press Seoul on sensitive matters such as U.S. troop levels or defense spending during the meeting.

Korea’s financial contribution to the upkeep of American troops will rise to $1.1 billion in the first year of a new five-year defense cost-sharing agreement signed in November 2024, an 8.3 percent increase over 2023. That figure, however, may be subject to change.

“It was significant that no direct demand came from President Trump regarding troops or defense costs,” Ha said. “Instead, the talks centered on North Korea, which allowed South Korea to take the initiative.”

He added that security issues were likely to take center stage in follow-up talks, emphasizing that both the reshaping of the alliance and questions over cost-sharing remain unresolved.

The South Korea-U.S. alliance is evolving beyond its Cold War-era role of deterring North Korea, toward a broader partnership addressing 21st-century challenges. Central to this shift is extending the alliance’s reach beyond the Korean Peninsula, with a focus on Indo-Pacific security in response to a more assertive China.

Trump, however, hinted at his broader expectations by referencing advanced U.S. military hardware.

During the talks, he mentioned the B-2 stealth bomber, a strategic weapon recently deployed in a mission against Iran. The reference was widely interpreted as a signal that he expects South Korea to expand its purchases of U.S. defense equipment, tying these acquisitions to Washington’s broader push for higher defense spending.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks during a ceremony at the Workers’ Party headquarters in Pyongyang to award state honors to overseas operation units, Friday, in this image captured from Korean Central Television. Yonhap

But Eom Hyo-sik, secretary general of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, cautioned against reading too much into Trump’s remarks.

“It is unrealistic for South Korea to purchase strategic assets such as a B-2 bomber,” he said. “Instead, Washington may press Seoul to share the cost of deploying such assets to the peninsula.”

He added that if the U.S. offers a package of potential arms sales, Seoul may need to demonstrate goodwill by considering items such as early warning aircraft, stealth fighters or heavy-lift helicopters.

Washington is demanding that South Korea increase its defense budget. According to U.S. officials, the aim is to increase Seoul’s spending from 2.6 percent of GDP to between 3.8 and 5 percent. Later, Lee addressed this expectation directly in his speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. He pledged to increase defense spending, stating that the additional budget would be allocated towards building "a smart, high-tech military" prepared for 21st-century conflicts.

Despite Lee’s assurances, questions persist over how the increases will be structured, particularly whether they will be tied to larger U.S. weapons purchases. Experts caution that the details could shape the future trajectory of the alliance.

Reactions from North

Another uncertainty is how North Korea will react.

During the summit, Lee attempted to portray Trump as the only leader capable of reviving dialogue with Pyongyang, telling him, “If you become the peacemaker, then I will assist you by being a pacemaker.”

However, it remains unclear whether Kim Jong-un will respond to Trump’s signals. For now, Pyongyang continues to issue harsh statements targeting both Washington and Seoul, raising doubts about whether conditions for resuming talks are in place.

In the end, the summit may be remembered more for what it deferred than for what it resolved.

Experts noted that the meeting avoided immediate confrontation and allowed both leaders to claim a measure of success. Yet the real challenges lie ahead, including resolving how South Korea’s defense budget increases will be structured, whether the modernization of the alliance will bring changes to the U.S. troop presence and whether North Korea is willing to reengage with Trump.

Until these questions are answered, experts agree that the alliance remains on uncertain ground.