Trump's indifference on NK-Russia military partnership unnerves South Korea

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, looks on next to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a press conference in Anchorage, Alaska, following their meeting to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, Friday (local time). Reuters-Yonhap

South Korea may have to brace for the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying North Korea's troop deployment to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, analysts warned Monday, as the U.S. leader courts closer ties with Moscow amid efforts to broker a peace deal to end the Ukraine war.

Analysts say Seoul should engage in careful diplomatic maneuvering at next week's summit between President Lee Jae Myung and Trump to secure U.S. assurances of a coordinated response to North Korea's military cooperation with Russia, which may outlast the ongoing war.

Lee is scheduled to have his first summit with Trump on Aug. 25, and security issues are expected to take center stage.

Following his rare summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday (local time), Trump signaled support for a peace framework that could allow Russia to consolidate its territorial gains in Ukraine. In doing so, he sidestepped Putin's accountability for war crimes, effectively restoring the Russian president's diplomatic standing on the international stage after years of isolation.

Analysts warn that Trump's conciliatory posture toward Putin could mean overlooking the presence of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. Pyongyang and Moscow confirmed the troop deployment in April after months of silence.

"From Trump’s perspective, as he seeks to improve ties with Russia while signaling openness to dialogue with North Korea, raising the troop deployment issue would risk provoking both Moscow and Pyongyang," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, noting that Trump is unlikely to press the issue publicly.

South Korean and U.S. officials have repeatedly voiced concerns that North Korea may be receiving economic aid or military technology for its missile programs from Russia in return for its troop deployment.

Seoul's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that in the process of ending the war in Ukraine, North Korea must not be rewarded for its wrongful actions, calling for a unified and stern response from the international community.

"In the peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington, the issue of North Korea's involvement in the war is likely to be sidelined," said Doo Jin-ho, head of the Eurasia Research Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.

"Of course, a lasting peace deal would require the withdrawal of North Korean troops from Russia, but the issue is being overshadowed by larger questions of Russia's territorial claims and security guarantees for Ukraine," he explained.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the Liberation Tower, which honors Soviet troops, Friday, marking the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule, in this photo published by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. Yonhap

Doo stressed that the matter should be actively raised by the South Korean leader during the upcoming summit with Trump.

"While the talks are expected to focus on tariffs, alliance modernization and the role of U.S. Forces Korea, Seoul, as a U.S. ally, should secure clarity from Washington on the progress of U.S.-Russia negotiations and assurance on how to address North Korea's role in the war," he said.

However, even if North Korean troops eventually withdraw from Ukraine as part of the peace settlement, this not does not mean the Moscow-Pyongyang military partnership will end, as the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed by the two countries in June 2024 remains in effect.

The treaty includes a mutual military assistance clause, obligating both sides to come to each other's aid in the event of an attack. That provision leaves open the possibility of Russian intervention on the Korean Peninsula in the event of a military conflict.

"While North Korea may become less useful to Russia once the Ukraine war ends, Pyongyang will try to maintain the relationship by invoking the strategic partnership treaty," Park said.

Just days before the Trump-Putin summit, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Aug. 12 held a rare phone call with Putin, pledging to "remain faithful to the spirit of the mutual defense treaty."

It marked the first time North Korea disclosed details of its leader's conversation with a foreign counterpart.