Korea-US tariff talks unlikely to bear fruit until June 3 presidential election: US expert

Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), speaks during a press conference at the 2025 Asan Plenum in Seoul, Wednesday. Courtesy of Asan Institute of Policy Studies

Korea’s tariff negotiations with the United States are unlikely to be concluded before the June 3 presidential election in Seoul, Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said Wednesday.

This means the next Korean administration will face the daunting task of finalizing a trade deal before the 90-day suspension of "reciprocal" tariffs expires on July 9, he said.

While Korea’s top government officials, including Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun, headed to Washington for high-stakes tariff negotiations scheduled for Thursday (local time), Cha expressed skepticism about the possibility of a breakthrough.

"We don't know how successful these negotiations will be. My understanding is that the Trump negotiating team are taking a pretty tough stand on these negotiations. So it's not clear what sort of exemptions Korea will be able to achieve," Cha said at a press conference in Seoul.

The press conference took place during the 2025 Asan Plenum, an annual security forum hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

"It's actually very difficult to imagine a deal can be made before the June 3 election, which then puts the incoming government in Korea in a tough position where they have basically a month to try to negotiate a trade deal before July 9 when the suspension expires," Cha said.

"Negotiating a trade deal versus concluding a trade deal are two very different things."

Choi and Ahn are set to hold “two-plus-two” talks with their U.S. counterparts — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration imposed reciprocal tariffs of 25 percent on Korean imports, only to pause them for 90 days.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he participates in a ceremonial swearing in of Paul Atkins as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday (local time). AP-Yonhap

On the security front, the analyst said Korea’s next president is also likely to face pressure from the U.S. over the "strategic flexibility" of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).

The concept envisions shifting USFK’s mission from a sole focus on deterring Pyongyang's threats to enabling rapid deployments elsewhere, particularly in the event of a contingency involving Taiwan. But such a scenario poses concerns among officials in Seoul about a weakened defense posture against its nuclear-armed northern neighbor.

"The hard thing for the next Korean administration is that I think they're going to have to deal with this question of strategic flexibility," he said, adding that the Trump administration has talked about repositioning U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific in preparation for Taiwan contingencies.

Cha elaborated that Trump’s push to bolster U.S. capabilities in the South China Sea and around Taiwan would likely lead to a reinforced U.S. military posture in many regions including Japan, Australia, Guam, Hawaii and the Philippines.

"But where the biggest change could come is on the Korean Peninsula," he said.