Next president should build personal diplomacy with Trump immediately: experts

Then-President Yoon Suk Yeol boards the presidential jet at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Nov. 14, 2024, as he departs on a trip to Peru and Brazil to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and G20 summits. Korea Times photo by Wang Tae-seog

Korea's next president, whoever it will be, should try to talk with U.S. President Donald Trump as soon as possible and build personal ties with him, as the removal of Yoon Suk Yeol from the presidency has thrown Korea’s foreign policy into a new period of uncertainty amid a rising global trade war.

During his nearly three years in office, Yoon sought to elevate South Korea’s role on the global stage, promoting a "global pivotal state" vision centered on strengthening ties with the United States and deepening cooperation with Japan.

His impeachment, upheld by the Constitutional Court on Friday, has abruptly halted this agenda, leaving Seoul’s diplomacy in limbo until a new leader is elected in the next two months.

Foreign affairs analysts told The Korea Times that while Yoon's ouster has resolved the nation's immediate political crisis, it offered little clarity on how the country will navigate growing global uncertainties in the face of an escalating trade war initiated by U.S. tariffs.

"The Constitutional Court's unanimous 8-0 vote and detailed rationale for upholding the impeachment has sent a strong domestic and international message: any political debate and divide that may exist in South Korea needs to be resolved within the existing constitutional and legal framework," said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor of international relations at King’s College London.

"This is a powerful message that brings certainty to the political situation in South Korea."

But still, Seoul’s diplomatic footing remains fragile. Officials are scrambling to shield the export-reliant economy from the impact of the Trump administration's imposition of "reciprocal" tariffs on U.S. trade partners, including 25 percent duties for South Korea.

"South Korea needs to deal with a Trump administration engaging in transactional relations, a China that still doesn't budge when it comes to its core interests, and a crumbling global governance system. The interim administration and the next president will have to deal with all these issues," Pacheco Pardo said.

U.S. President Donald Trump steps off Air Force One upon arrival at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla., Thursday (local time). AFP-Yonhap

Some analysts say serious diplomatic engagement between Seoul and Washington is unlikely in the near future, as Trump's attention remains razor-focused on tariffs.

"Right now, the last thing on Trump's mind is South Korea — beyond tariffs and getting what he thinks are his rightful economic dues. The only thing Trump wants to hear from Seoul is that they will give him what he wants on tariff policy," said Harry Kazianis, head of the Rogue States Project, a security think tank.

"Currently, ensuring the economy is stable in the face of Trump's tariff war is the item Seoul must care about the most. Whoever becomes president should come to Washington immediately and try to work out a compromise with Trump," Kazianis added. "Personal diplomacy with Trump is the best diplomacy."

Sean King, senior vice president of the New York-based consulting firm Park Strategies, also viewed that Trump is not closely following the political situation in Seoul.

However, he warned that Yoon’s martial law imposition and subsequent impeachment may have made Washington more cautious in making major security decisions regarding the Korean Peninsula. In particular, King pointed to bilateral negotiations on transferring wartime operational control, also known as OPCON, possibly facing hesitation by U.S. officials.

"This episode should give many in Washington reason for pause when it comes to giving South Korea OPCON. The martial law suggests Seoul may not be ready for prime-time. So long as U.S. forces are on the peninsula, does Washington really want to risk OPCON transfer if a future Korean president could pull another such short-sighted, megalomaniac martial law stunt as Yoon did?" he said.

Following Yoon's removal, the U.S. State Department said it "looks forward to a future of close cooperation that brings security and prosperity to both nations."

"The United States respects the ROK's democratic institutions, its legal processes and the decision of the Constitutional Court," a State Department spokesperson was quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency, Saturday. ROK stands for the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.

Then-President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attend a G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Nov. 18, 2024 (local time). AP-Yonhap

Meanwhile, Seoul's relations with neighboring Asian countries could also shift depending on who succeeds impeached Yoon. Japan, in particular, may view the upcoming leadership change with concern.

"Tokyo can’t be happy, as Yoon Suk Yeol was Japan’s biggest Korean booster," King said.

During his term, Yoon had made restoring ties with Japan a key pillar of his foreign policy, seeking to move beyond long-standing historical grievances stemming from Japan’s colonial rule of Korea (1910-45). Such a stance was sharply criticized by his political opponents, who accused him of being overly conciliatory to Japan on historical issues.

But now with Yoon gone, the progress he made with Tokyo — including joint military efforts to counter North Korea’s provocations — may lose momentum, particularly if a liberal leader succeeds him. Rep. Lee Jae-myung, the presidential frontrunner from the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, has previously denounced trilateral military drills with the U.S. and Japan, criticizing Yoon for building military ties with Korea’s former colonial ruler.