S. Korea-US-Japan partnership to face test when Biden, Kishida leave office
President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden, center, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pose ahead of their trilateral summit meeting at the U.S. presidential retreat Camp David, Md., Aug. 18, 2023. Yonhap
A pivotal moment looms for the trilateral partnership between South Korea, the United States and Japan, as one year has passed since the historic Camp David summit on Aug. 18, 2023, that opened a new era of strategic cooperation between the three nations.
The three leaders issued a joint statement, Sunday, celebrating the achievements of their trilateral security cooperation.
"We are working together to achieve our shared goals of advancing security and prosperity for the region and the world. We stand by our commitment to consult on regional challenges, provocations and threats affecting our collective interests and security," the statement reads.
The leaders highlighted key accomplishments in security areas, including the progress made by trilateral working groups focused on countering North Korea's threats.
Yet observers say the three-way partnership now faces a test as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s Camp David partners — U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida — prepare to leave office.
Kishida announced last week that he will not seek reelection in the upcoming leadership contest for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September. The winner of this race will become the next prime minister.
This announcement follows Biden's decision, made about a month earlier, to withdraw from the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential race. Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to compete against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
While experts don't believe these leadership transitions in Washington and Tokyo will fundamentally disrupt the trilateral relationship, they caution that Yoon may face challenges in building new ties with Biden and Kishida's successors.
At the same time, observers view that the three-way security partnership may depend more on the next U.S. leader than its Japanese counterpart, as Tokyo’s foreign policy priorities are expected to remain consistent under the next leader.
President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida make a toast at a restaurant in Ginza, Tokyo, March 16, 2023, during Yoon's visit to Tokyo. Yonhap
"Given Japan's tendency to follow U.S. leadership in forming multinational partnerships, and the Yoon government's continued friendly outreach to Tokyo, the next Japanese prime minister is unlikely to scale back trilateral cooperation," said Yang Ki-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University.
Yang noted that potential candidates for the next prime minister, such as former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Digital Minister Taro Kono, are unlikely to deviate from Kishida's foreign policy.
"However, Yoon, who has fostered a close relationship with Kishida through multiple meetings, will have to put in efforts to build a similar rapport with Kishida's successor," Yang said.
Lee Won-deog, a professor of Japanese studies at Kookmin University, gave a similar analysis.
"The post-Kishida Cabinet is expected to reflect changes driven by internal party dynamics, aimed at regaining public support that has waned due to Kishida's political scandals. I would expect certain potential shifts in domestic policy under the new prime minister, but foreign and security policies will largely continue along the lines established by Kishida," Lee said.
The professor viewed that significant changes in the trilateral relationship would more likely come from the U.S. side, particularly if Trump returns to office. Under his "America-first" approach, Trump may seek to reevaluate the U.S.' multinational commitments made under Biden.
Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said Trump, if reelected, may want to shift the focus of the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo trilateral cooperation toward economic issues rather than regional security, diverging from the Biden administration’s approach.
"Trump may seek to rebrand the three-way relationship and come up with a new name for it in order to distance himself from Biden’s 'Camp David legacy' and establish his own priorities. And he would focus on protecting America’s interests on the economic front," the researcher said.
Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump raises his fist during a campaign rally at the Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Saturday (local time). AP-Yonhap
However, Cho said Trump is unlikely to fundamentally undermine or dismantle the three-way ties.
"Trump is indeed a skeptic of multinational partnerships, but he is likely to maintain the core framework of the trilateral partnership, which has provided significant strategic benefits to the U.S., including counterbalancing against China. This sentiment is already evident within the Trump camp," Cho said.
South Korea's presidential office expressed confidence that trilateral ties will remain robust regardless of leadership transitions in the partner nations.
"With the U.S. presidential election approaching and the LDP leadership election in Japan coming up next month, it is clear that the three leaders who established the Camp David cooperation framework cannot remain in their positions forever," a senior presidential official said, Sunday.
"Regardless of the leadership changes in the U.S. and Japan, the value of the Camp David framework is highly regarded across political and public sectors in both countries," he added.
The official also mentioned that the three leaders might hold another trilateral summit within this year, though discussions are still in the preliminary stages.
But observers believe that such a summit might not hold the same significance as the Camp David meeting, as both Biden and Kishida are seen as lame-duck leaders now.
"The trilateral summit may not carry as much weight, given that two of the three participants are outgoing ones," Yang said.