Three leaders at a crossroads

Moon, Kim, Trump pursue peace talks for different reasons

By Kang Seung-woo

President Moon Jae-in, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump ― the three leaders who are the major players with regard to issues related to the Korean Peninsula ― are at a crossroads.

Faced with multiple matters in the fields of politics and their countries' economies among others, they are undergoing respective crises, with their political fates on the line

President Moon is currently seeing more people disapproving of his management of state affairs with his approval rating continuously plunging due to controversies over sexual harassment allegations involving high ranking members of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea that included the late Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, as well as skyrocketing housing prices in Seoul and nearby cities. According to local pollster Realmeter, Monday, his support rate fell to the lowest in nine months at 44.8 percent, raising the specter of lame duck status in the final 22 months of his presidency. Moon's term ends in May 2022.

To turn things around, many believe that Moon is trying to improve ties between South and North Korea ― which did play an important role in garnering support for him during the early years of his presidency that started in May 2017.

“The Moon administration is adopting a politically calculated method [to rally his declining approval rating.] Furthermore, improving inter-Korean relations has served as its identity,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.

Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks, also said, “For President Moon Jae-in, his challenge is to re-engage with Kim Jong-un on intra-Korean relations and get that back on track, pursuant to the Panmunjeom Declaration of 2018.” The declaration was issued following the first summit between Moon and Kim in April 2018.

Despite detente on the peninsula following three summits between Moon and Kim, all of which took place in 2018, bilateral ties have deteriorated, with Pyongyang complaining of Seoul's inability to convince Washington to lift economic sanctions on the reclusive state. As a result, the government's repeated offers of inter-Korean projects have been met with a stony silence from the North.

DeTrani also said Moon needs to ensure that U.S.-South Korea relations remain solid; the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) issue is resolved amicably; and preparations proceed for the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) of Korean troops as planned.

The negotiations of the SMA, which determines Korea's financial contribution for the stationing of American troops here, have been stalled since last September, raising speculation over a growing rift between the allies. The Moon administration is also seeking to regain wartime OPCON by 2022, a process that is currently underway.

Park said Kim is also faced with a few challenges linked to the North Korean economy and his regime's stability.

“Due to the deadlock in nuclear talks with the U.S. and the COVID-19 pandemic, it has come to light that the economic situation in Pyongyang, which is the backbone of the North Korean regime, is not good, as evidenced by panic buying-incurred food price hikes. If Kim cannot find a major breakthrough in addressing pending problems, he may lose his grip on power,” Park said.

In that respect, Kim is much focused on the capital, exemplified by the construction of the Pyongyang General Hospital, according to the professor.

“Should the current situation continue in the North, Kim may see dissent from those who support him, which could pose a threat to his authority,” he added.

Diplomatic experts, including Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, concurred that the biggest challenge facing President Trump is a noticeable slide in popularity in his reelection bid.

“Trump is focused on reelection in November and has to broaden his base to win electoral battlegrounds,” Easley said.

According to multiple polls in the U.S., Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by up to 15 percentage points, fueling speculation that he may be the fourth sitting president to lose a reelection campaign following Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. Speculation has been around that he may seek a summit with Kim for an “October surprise” just ahead of the November election.

Moon took office in May 2017, just after Trump was sworn in in January 2017, while Kim assumed power in December 2011. However, none of them has produced any apparent diplomatic achievement so far.

“Moon has two years left in office and cannot be reelected, so is looking to maintain enough legislative and public support to institutionalize reforms,” Easley said.

Park also said President Moon, obsessed with improving bilateral ties between South and North Korea, is anticipated to push harder for inter-Korean projects.

DeTrani said Kim would attempt to “reengage with the U.S. and get sanctions lifted or eased, in pursuit of normal relations with Washington, while ensuring the North receives the requisite security assurances.” He also advised Trump to “get North Korea to enter into working level denuclearization talks with the U.S., in line with the Singapore Joint Statement of 2018.”

Easley added: “Despite these very different time horizons and domestic political coalitions, all three leaders are struggling to start a post-pandemic economic recovery and make foreign policy achievements. Each can score wins by changing tack: Trump by multi-lateralizing his China policy, Moon by improving relations with Japan, and Kim by accepting humanitarian assistance from South Korea.”