Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo seeking regional stability

Leaders of South Korea, Japan and China pose for a photo during The Seventh Trilateral Summit Meeting Japan-China-Republic of Korea, May 9, 2018, at the Akasaka Palace State Guest House in Tokyo, Japan. From left are China's Premier Li Keqiang, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Moon Jae-in. Korea Times file

By Jung Da-min

The upcoming meeting between President Moon Jae-in, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to be held at the end of this month in the Chinese city of Chengdu will be an opportunity to explore trilateral cooperation focusing on security, experts said Tuesday.

“The role of China in regional security has both positive and negative aspects,” said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “China's identity as an ally of North Korea can have negative effects on the denuclearization negotiations between the international community and the North, thus threatening the security of the Korean Peninsula; but on the other side, China can play a role of sanctioning the North to facilitate the denuclearization process.”

Shin said South Korea should shift its strategy toward China to strengthen security cooperation, so that the positive role it could play would be maximized.

Cho Seong-ryoul, a senior adviser at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said what China calls the “three no” promises from the South Korean government made in 2017 is a good example representing Seoul's stance toward Washington and Beijing.

The “three no” promises are that Seoul would not allow the deployment of additional U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems other than the one already in place here; that there will be no “military alliance” among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan; and that Seoul would not participate in the U.S.-led “theater missile defense” network.

Regarding U.S. moves to further engage its allies and partners in its Indo-Pacific Policy that seeks to expand its presence in the region, Cho said South Korea should continue to implement its own New Southern Policy in the region that seeks to strengthen ties with ASEAN countries, rather than fully support Washington's policy.

“South Korea could cooperate with the U.S. to the extent where it can harmonize its New Southern Policy with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Policy,” Cho said.

The upcoming high-profile meeting comes at a crucial diplomatic moment for Seoul, as it not only faces a row with Tokyo, but also the North Korea nuclear issue.

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University's Far East Institute, said it remains to be seen what stances China and Russia will take during a planned United Nations Security Council meeting to be held Dec. 11. They could offer a preview of the North's self-proclaimed “new way,” as Pyongyang has recently focused more on strengthening ties with its two traditional allies, with high-level officials frequently visiting Beijing and Moscow.

The China encounter is expected to become a venue for South Korea and Japan to discuss how to improve bilateral relations, as Moon and Abe are set to hold a summit on the sidelines of the event.

Experts say that regardless of whether the South Korea-Japan intelligence sharing pact, the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), is continued or terminated, the pact will not affect security cooperation among South Korea, Japan and China, as Beijing also shares an interest in the denuclearization of North Korea given its long-time economic and political influence there.

South Korea decided to delay the termination of the GSOMIA at the very last minute before its official expiration. However, the decision is conditional, according to Cheong Wa Dae.