Big increase in defense cost sharing could backfire on US

By Jhoo Dong-chan

A whopping increase in South Korea's share of defense costs mostly for the maintenance of some 28,500 United States Forces Korea troops, could potentially backfire on Washington as the increase could weaken the U.S.-South Korea security alliance and lead to Seoul's spending less on U.S.-manufactured weapons.

Senior U.S. military officials were in Seoul last week to push for the extension of a bilateral intelligence sharing pact with Japan, and an increase in defense cost-sharing for the United States Forces Korea (USFK).

It remains to be seen whether their South Korean counterparts or National Security Council (NSC) members will acquiesce on these issues, as Trump's “one-way” repeated request to key allies to pay more for the stationing of U.S. troops has been receiving a negative response even within his own administration.

Last year, then Defense Secretary James Mattis resigned in protest over Trump's proposed plan to withdraw 2,000 U.S. troops from Syria.

Political analysts said the exit of Mattis, who had once been described as one of the “adults in the room,” meant there were no people in the administration protecting the country from Trump's worst impulses.

“South Korea was ready to pay more; however, Trump was asking too much. Also, Washington seemed to pay less attention to the U.S.-South Korea alliance, from Seoul's standpoint, because South Korea wanted it to play some role in resolving the ongoing feud with japan. Trump has been treating its key allies as a piggy bank with his demands, which I believe is not a good thing,” a presidential aide told The Korea Times, last week.

The aide said the South Korea-U.S. alliance was at a major crossroads as Trump's continued insistence that Seoul should pay more for the U.S. military presence as a key deterrent to North Korea has “tested Seoul's confidence” in the U.S.

Some civic groups are calling for a drastic shift in the alliance with the United States including a possible withdrawal or a drastic reduction of the USFK.

A recent survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification released last week showed 96 percent of South Koreans were against paying more for the U.S. military presence.

“It's always a deal. Trump knows President Moon Jae-in wants to break the impasse in the denuclearization process, and sees South Korea as the starting point in getting other countries to pay more for defense costs as the U.S. is planning to hold similar meetings with its other allies including Japan. But the point is Trump has shown no respect for the long-time ally. The Washington-Seoul alliance has been maintained and developed since the end of the Korean War,” a ruling Democratic Party of Korea representative said by telephone.

South Korea paid 1 trillion won to maintain U.S. troops, here for 2019. But there have been rumors that the country has been asked to pay 5 trillion won. Talks between negotiators from the sides are ongoing.

Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun, chief of National Assembly Diplomacy Committee, said after wrapping up a recent visit to the U.S. that the $5 trillion number was “unreasonable and unrealistic.”

On an industry front, Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the U.S.-based Rand Corp., said if South Korea ends up paying a lot more, then ripple effects could occur as a result.

Bennett claimed that as nuclear threats are still looming on the Korean Peninsula with U.N. nuclear watchdog IAEA announcing the North's capability to hold quite a few nuclear weapons, the increased cost-sharing for South Korea would result in the country having a reduced defense budget.

That means there would be less chance of South Korea buying advanced U.S. military weapons. South Korea ordered 40 F-35A stealth fighters built by Lockheed Martin in 2014 for $6.8 billion. The delivery of all 40 is expected to be completed by 2021.

“An independent nuclear weapons program is not the only alternative for Seoul should it find itself unable to meet U.S. demands for greater contributions,” a former South Korean diplomat Chang Boo-seung was quoted as saying by Forbes. “It can also choose to engage with North Korea and move closer to China. If pushed too hard, South Korea may be forced to take steps that unravel decades of policies that have benefited both Seoul and Washington. This could shake the foundations of Washington's military alliances around the region and the world. Its rivals would gladly fill that power vacuum.”

Cheong Wa Dae ruled out the possibility of manufacturing its own nuclear-powered submarines or develop nuclear weapons for the moment.