By Jingnan Huo
WASHINGTON D.C. ― South Korea will oppose any unilateral U.S. military action against North Korea which U.S. President Donald Trump says is “looking for trouble,” according to leading U.S. experts.
While Trump has said the U.S. will solve the problem of North Korea on its own unless China helps, analysts said that any U.S. action against the North should be based on a prior agreement with Seoul.
“Seoul will oppose any unilateral military action plan by the United States against North Korea,” Scott Snyder, director of the Program on US-Korea Policy at the Council of Foreign Relations, told the Medill News Service, recently.
The director said the most undesirable outcome on the Korean Peninsula is U.S. military action to stop nuclear development by North Korea, but other options are falling by the wayside.
Economic sanctions seem to have had little effect on the North Koreans, Snyder said. Seoul will have to juggle defending itself against a belligerent neighbor while maintaining good relations with China, a major trade partner, as well as the United States.
He added there’s little chance of North Korea abandoning its nuclear ambitions as its capability is “growing,” giving leverage and legitimacy to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Snyder expects Seoul’s relationship with Washington to be tense in the foreseeable future given the Trump administration’s inexperience in handling Korea-related issues and the growing possibility of the new Korean government taking a rather aggressive stance towards North Korea’s nuclear activity.
Dennis Wilder, who previously served as a senior director for East Asia affairs at the National Security Council under former US President George W. Bush, said Trump’s threats against North Korea should carry more weight with Kim Jong-un as he isn’t bluffing.
“The U.S. is trying to push North Korea to the negotiating table by firing missiles at Syria,” said Wilder, adding the primary goal is not to destroy North Korea or to have the dictator out of power. “The goal is peace and stability on the peninsula, in whatever way to achieve that.”
On Tuesday, Trump said that if he decides to take action against the North, it will be "decisive and proportional" as seen in the U.S. airstrikes on Syria. Trump tweeted that the U.S. will solve the problem of North Korea on its own if China does not take action, adding that the North is “looking for trouble.”
China will have to choose between supporting Pyongyang’s nuclear development programs or living with the consequences of unilateral military action by the U.S. according to Wilder.
The recent summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump at the latter’s Mar-a-Largo resort in Florida influenced the U.S. President to change his equation with China, which put South Korea in a more delicate situation.
Chinese leader Xi has urged Trump to peacefully resolve surging tensions over North Korea's nuclear program. In a phone call with Trump, Xi told him China “advocates resolving the issue through peaceful means,” according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, Wednesday.
Jenny Town, assistant director of the US-Korea Institute at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at John Hopkins University, said, “Everyone’s role has to change now. I don’t think anyone is ready for that.”
But Town said the U.S. action against Syria would not intimidate North Korea into changing its ways. “It’s going to backfire. North Korea has already been threatened in the past. This is not going to make them soft,” she said.
“At this point, any president that decides to try to … pull North Korea into a nuclear discussion ― just the act of even attempting this, regardless of the outcome ― is going to get lots of criticism,” said Town.
The Korea Times has partnered with Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism in Evanston, Illinois, in the United States, under which graduate journalism students at Medill's newsroom in Washington, D.C. will write articles about Korea. This is the third such piece under the partnership. Kim Yoo-chul, an assistant editor of The Korea Times, contributed to this article.