By Yi Whan-woo
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are unlikely to produce any meaningful deal on North Korea during their summit, analysts said Friday.
On the first day of the two-day summit at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, the U.S. military bombarded a Syrian airbase with 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles in retaliation to a chemical weapon attack on civilians.
This could leave Xi a bit uncomfortable with Trump increasing pressure on China to make North Korea stop its provocations or it will “act independently.”
However, analysts say the military action against Syria will still not scare Xi enough.
“The U.S. airstrike on Syria was apparently Trump’s slap on Xi’s face, ensuring that U.S. military options are on the table if China continues to be reluctant on pushing North Korea,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, citing that China has opposed sanctions on Syria.
“But I don’t think Trump can actually strike North Korea as he did Syria because he will need to take South Korea’s objection, which is almost certain, into account as well.
“Xi may know it too well and the two-day summit at Mar-a-Lago will not be long enough for Trump to persuade him.”
Some analysts say the Chinese strongman, as he was before, will be concerned about possible setbacks to China’s security interests if he concedes to the hot-tempered U.S. leader. For Beijing, collapse of North Korea means losing a buffer zone against U.S. expansion on the Korean Peninsula.
They say the summit will fall short of preventing the Kim Jong-un regime from continuing to pursue nuclear and ballistic missile development.
Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said, “It will take time,” echoing Kim’s view.
“The U.S.-led allies as well as China and Russia took over two decades to denuclearize North Korea but failed. And you can’t expect to clear up such a problem in two days.”
He also said a pre-emptive military attack on North Korea poses more challenges than one against Syria as the latter already has been destabilized by the ongoing civil war.
Trump said the U.S. attacked the Shayrat Airfield, which is held by the dictatorial Syrian government, because it was used to launch the chemical attack on a rebel-held area.
The experts predicted Trump, if wanting to convince Xi, will need to guarantee that the sanctions on North Korea should not be so threatening as to lead to a possible collapse of the reclusive state and political chaos on the North Korea-China border.
“And it will be very tricky to find solutions accordingly,” Kim said.
The analysts speculated that Trump, who vowed to deal with North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile threats with or without China’s help, will go ahead if his finds the summit unsatisfactory.
They said Washington’s possible options include imposing a secondary boycott of North Korea and additional deployment of a second U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea.
The secondary boycott will mainly curb Chinese companies from dealing with North Korea. China has been opposed to the ongoing installation of the first THAAD battery in South Korea.
WASHINGTON (Yonhap) — U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called strongly for China to use its influence over North Korea to end its nuclear and missile programs, as Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Florida for summit talks with President Donald Trump.
“We are hopeful that China will find ways to exercise influence over North Korea’s actions to dismantle their nuclear weapons and their missile technology programs,” Tillerson told reporters after greeting Xi at a Florida airport.
“Whether choosing their authority on the U.N. Security Council or utilizing new levers of power, China can be part of a new strategy to end North Korea’s reckless behavior and ensure security, stability and economic prosperity in Northeast Asia,” he said.
Even as the U.S. shares the desire to work together with China, it also recognizes the "challenges China can present to American interests," Tillerson said, adding, "We renew our strong commitments to our allies in Asia and around the world who have been valuable partners in preserving shared values and security interests."
China is North Korea’s last-remaining major ally and a key provider of food and fuel supplies. But it has been reluctant to use its influence over Pyongyang for fears that pushing the regime too hard could result in instability in the North and hurt Chinese national interests.
Trump has repeatedly said he would use the summit with Xi to get China to exercise real pressure on Pyongyang.