By Yi Whan-woo
President Park Geun-hye is seeking trilateral talks to settle a dispute between South Korea, the United States and China over the planned deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea.
On Monday, she proposed “a comprehensive discussion” involving the United States during bilateral talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 Summit.
Analysts said Tuesday that Park’s offer was an attempt to make Seoul a mediator amid China’s opposition toward the joint decision made by South Korea and the U.S. concerning THAAD.
They also said China may appreciate Park’s gesture amid escalating military tension between the two superpowers.
However, China is likely to be skeptical about a three-way conversation, considering it remained lukewarm toward a 2015 proposal jointly made by Park and U.S. President Barack Obama for a three-way consultation on North Korea’s denuclearization.
“Park’s offer is noteworthy because she sent clear signs to China that South Korea will try to maintain good relations,” said Kim Yeol-su, an international politics professor at Sungshin Women’s University. “Beijing is likely to take Park’s gesture into account in future relations between the two countries.”
The professor, however, speculated that China will reject Park’s offer.
“It will be China versus both the U.S. and South Korea if the three-way talks take place and Beijing does not want this to happen,” Kim said.
Kwak Jin-o, a senior researcher at the Northeast Asian History Foundation, said Park’s offer should be interpreted as “sheer rhetoric.”
“I don’ think the President believed in the realization of the three-way talks when she made the offer,” he said. “I believe her intention was to ensure Seoul’s relations with Beijing will not be frayed regardless of THAAD.”
Meanwhile, another expert claimed that Xi has been seeking “plausible reasons” to withdraw his country’s objections toward THAAD and therefore he may accept Park’s offer eventually.
“It’s too apparent that South Korea and the U.S. will never scrap their decision concerning THAAD because it really is for self-defense purposes against North Korea’s military threat,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University. “Given this climate, Xi needs an exit strategy to convince his people that he’ll comply with such a decision without humiliating himself. And trilateral talks can serve as an opportunity for Xi to do so.”
Critics are divided over whether the U.S. will accept Park’s offer.
The President’s proposal is based on the condition that South Korea will only set up the THAAD battery to deter North Korean missile attacks and it will be removed if the threat is gone.
But Washington ultimately wants to use the THAAD battery as a steppingstone to expand its missile defense system across the Korean Peninsula to better contain a rising China, and so will oppose Park’s proposal, according to Kwak.
Park Won-gon disagreed. “The U.S. will maintain its stance that THAAD will be exclusively used against North Korea’s evolving military threats,” he said.