By Yi Whan-woo
President Park Geun-hye’s signature project, the Eurasia Initiative, is at risk of being scrapped after the government decided Tuesday to pull out of a joint logistics project involving the two Koreas and Russia.
Analysts said Wednesday that the suspension of the three-way project will consequently lead to the scrapping of the Eurasia Initiative, an envisioned inter-Korean railroad connecting to Russia’s Trans-Siberian Railway, and on to Western Europe.
The Rajin-Khasan project was a pivotal part of the initiative that Park introduced in October 2013. Her ultimate goal was to establish a unified logistics and energy network across the Korean Peninsula, Russia and Europe in the long term.
The initial phase of the project sought to secure an international sales route for Siberian coal through a railroad between Russia’s border town of Khasan and North Korea’s ice-free port of Rajin.
South Korean enterprises involved in the project imported coal from Rajin on Chinese-flagged vessels in three trial runs from 2014 to 2015.
In a set of sanctions on Pyongyang, Tuesday, the government said it will ban the entry of foreign ships if they have visited North Korea six months before making a port call here.
“It’s risky to say that the government will officially scrap the Eurasia Initiative but the independent sanctions will inevitably and eventually lead to end of Park’s ambitious diplomatic plan,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.
Park Young-ho of the Korea Institute for National Unification echoed a similar view, pointing out that Seoul has consistently said its punitive measures against Pyongyang will be lifted only when the military state gives up its nuclear ambitions.
Seoul’s sanctions are a follow-up to the latest U.N. Security Council Resolution approved on March 2 in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear test, Jan. 6, and a long-range rocket launch, Feb. 7.
“There will no way that the Kim regime will give up its nuclear-related activities during Park’s remaining presidency,” said Park Young-ho. The President’s five-year term will end in February 2018.
“Under such circumstance, South Korea’s maritime ban against the North will remain effective while Park is in her presidency, meaning the Eurasia Initiative will be stalled.
“Moreover, the Eurasia Initiative was Park’s idea and no one can guarantee whether her predecessor will faithfully carry out such a policy,” he added.
The analysts criticized the Park administration for “failing to leave space open” to engage in relations with North Korea regardless of growing U.N. pressure on the isolated state.
Russia, a veto-wielding member of the UNSC, asked the council to ensure sales of Siberian coal through Rajin before agreeing to approve the resolution last week.
Yang downplayed the exclusion of North Korea among countries mentioned on China’s “One Belt One Road” project during the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 5.
Proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, the “One Belt One Road” project is similar to the Eurasia Initiative in that it pursues the establishment of a logistics network connecting the two Koreas, China, Russia and central Asian countries.
North Korea was not on the list of China’s partner nations during an announcement made at the NPC session concerning the project.
“China has been North Korea’s benefactor and it can put the Kim regime back on the project any time it wants. But we would need support from Russia as well as North Korea if we want the Eurasia Initiative to get back on track,” said Yang.