WASHINGTON (Yonhap) -- The Barack Obama administration's "strategic patience" with North Korea will only facilitate Pyongyang's "natural process" of developing nuclear weapons and delivery systems, a prominent U.S. pundit said Sunday.
North Korean officials feel clearly that time is on their side and that sanctions are ineffective due to China's patronage, according to Joel Wit, a former U.S. State Department official specializing in North Korean issues.
Their pending rocket launch is "not the only card they have up their sleeve," he said in an interview. "They have many cards."
The North initially announced that it would launch what it claims to be a space rocket between Dec. 10 and 22. But it later said the launch might be postponed for unspecified reasons.
Wit raised the possibility of technical problems created by cold weather.
"Once the temperature gets too low, the rocket isn't going to work," he said. "The fuel isn't going to work. Of course, there are political reasons for doing it (the launch) this time of year, but I think what's happened is technical reasons are starting to become a much bigger factor."
Whatever the political backdrop is behind the launch plan, he said, it is "not a high-stakes gamble" for North Korea.
"There is no downside (for them)," he said. "I think it's just part of the natural process of developing ballistic missiles. North Korea is on a trajectory now where it believes that it has to depend on itself for its own national security."
He said another nuclear test is "always possible."
At the North's nuclear test site, which was flooded last summer, "there also seems to be activity other than just repairing the damage," he said, citing satellite imagery.
"That doesn't mean that they are going to test tomorrow. But they are certainly active at the nuclear test site."
Wit said Pyongyang is aware that the enforcement of tough U.N. sanctions against it is limited by China.
"I think it's time for us to be realistic about this problem," Wit said, and urged U.S. officials to stop relying only on "talking points they are pulling out of the file cabinet."
"No one believes that the U.S. is going to be able to go to the U.N. and get tough sanctions. The North Koreans don't believe it," he said. "We need to be realistic about what we can accomplish."
He said the Obama government should steer away from the policy of strategic patience and explore ways to engage Pyongyang.
The policy has only allowed Pyongyang's weapons program to grow and its political system to get more stable, he said.
But Wit said Washington is unlikely to change its approach due to a natural inclination to keep digging "to get out of a hole."
He accused the U.S. of "having basically subcontracted" its strategy on North Korea to Korea's conservative government over the past few years.
He said South Korea's upcoming leadership transition is very important in that sense, adding it would be "really the only hope" to move away from the policy of strategic patience.
Both of South Korea's two leading presidential candidates -- Park Geun-hye of the ruling party and Moon Jae-in of the liberal opposition camp -- have signaled they want a reinvigorated effort to engage North Korea.
The winner of the Dec. 19 polls is widely expected to visit Washington for summit talks with Obama early next year. Formulating a new joint strategy on Pyongyang will likely top the agenda.
Wit emphasized that North Korea is committed to developing long-range missiles along with nuclear weapons.
"North Korea is serious about developing this kind of technology," he said. "I don't buy the argument that they are just doing this (rocket launch move) to get attention or they are doing it to get the United States or South Korea to come back to the negotiating table."
North Korea expects that at some point the U.S. and South Korea will be back at the bargaining table, he said.
"And if that expectation proves true, they want to be in the strongest position possible," he said.
Reasons for the pending launch could include competition with the South in space exploration, as well as the upcoming anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il, father of the current leader, Kim Jong-un, he added.
Wit frankly conceded that he sometimes is mistaken in assessing and predicting North Korea's actions, although he has long monitored North Korea, traveled there and occasionally met its government officials.
He said, however, the current administration has no experts on the regime.
"There is really a lack of expertise on North Korea in the U.S. government," he said.
There are many officials who are well versed in Iran and other countries, he said, but that's not enough.
"None of these skills are transferable to North Korea," he said. "It's a very different place."
Wit said his latest meeting with North Korean officials took place in Singapore in late July.
In the meeting, Wit said North Korea demanded the U.S. first express commitments to security assurances and take related steps, a departure from a key provision in the 2005 Joint Statement -- the principle of "commitment for commitment, action for action."
It may be an indication that the North Koreans believe that they have the upper hand and time is on their side, he said.
North Korea may announce at some point that it will no longer abide by its denuclearization commitment in the landmark agreement, which could "gradually evaporate," he added.
On Washington's call for Pyongyang to follow in the footsteps of Myanmar (Burma) towards reform and democracy, he tersely said it is yet another prepared talking point.
North Korea, which has exerted tight authoritarian control of its people for decades, is completely different from Myanmar, where opposition groups easily acquire enormous and accurate information on the country's weapons deals with Pyongyang, he said. (Yonhap)