Korea's dependency ratio to rise from OECD's lowest to highest by 2048
Summary
Korea’s total dependency ratio is projected to rise from the OECD’s lowest to its highest by 2048, reaching 90.2 as the population ages and birthrates remain low. The ratio is forecast to reach 117.3 by 2070, with nearly all of the increase driven by the growing elderly population. Rising dependency is adding pressure to public spending, while the government is calling for reforms to address a shrinking workforce. Officials have also highlighted longer working lives, child care support and immigration policy as parts of the response.
Key Facts
- The total dependency ratio counts children aged 14 and younger and adults aged 65 and older for every 100 people aged 15 to 64, and does not measure actual financial obligations or employment levels.
- Korea’s old-age dependency ratio is projected to rise from 31.3 this year to 103.3 in 2070, while the child dependency ratio is expected to remain near 14.
- Government forecasts put mandatory spending on programs for older people at 33.1 trillion won in 2030, up 28.7 percent from 25.7 trillion won this year.
- The National Assembly Budget Office projects mandatory welfare spending of 273.8 trillion won, more than 17 trillion won above the government’s estimate of 256.7 trillion won.
- Next year’s elementary school intake is expected to fall below 300,000 for the first time since records began in 1964.
Shrinking school intake signals heavier burden on future workers
Older people line up for a free lunch outside Tapgol Park in Jongno District, Seoul, Nov. 1. Yonhap
Korea is on course to have the highest total dependency ratio among OECD members by 2048, up from the lowest this year, as population aging and persistently low birthrates reshape the country's economy.
Calculations based on the OECD’s latest population projections showed Sunday that the ratio will rise from 45.4 this year to 90.2 in 2048, exceeding Greece’s 90.1. It is forecast to reach 117.3 by 2070, roughly 2.6 times its current level.
The indicator counts children aged 14 and younger and adults aged 65 and older for every 100 people aged 15 to 64. It reflects the population’s age structure rather than actual financial obligations or employment levels.
Almost all of the projected increase stems from the expanding elderly population. The number of people aged 65 and older per 100 working-age people is expected to climb from 31.3 this year to 103.3 in 2070. The corresponding figure for children will stay near 14.
Korea’s old-age dependency ratio currently ranks as the 18th-lowest among the OECD’s 38 members. By 2045, it is projected to reach 68.4, overtaking Japan’s 67.6 to become the highest. Its increase through 2070 will also be the steepest in the group.
These demographic shifts are adding to spending pressures.
The government forecasts mandatory expenditure on programs for older people, including the basic pension and long-term care insurance, to grow 28.7 percent from 25.7 trillion won ($19 billion) this year to 33.1 trillion won in 2030. Mandatory welfare spending, which includes public pensions, is expected to increase 30.8 percent to 256.7 trillion won over the same period.
The National Assembly Budget Office projects a higher total of 273.8 trillion won, exceeding the government’s estimate by more than 17 trillion won.
The economic consequences will also depend on how many people remain employed and earn income. Extending working lives beyond 65 could help sustain tax revenue and social insurance contributions.
In an April 2025 report, the Bank of Korea stressed the need to make greater use of older workers to cushion the decline in labor supply and slowdown in potential growth.
“As Korea enters a super-aged society, making greater use of older workers is essential to mitigate declining labor supply and weakening growth potential,” the central bank said. “Older people’s strong desire to continue working, income gaps after retirement and low satisfaction with government-funded senior job programs also underscore the urgent need to create a labor market that allows them to remain productive for longer.”
A student walks to an elementary school in Daegu with a hand in a parent’s pocket, Nov. 3. Yonhap
The effects of falling births are already visible in schools. Next year’s elementary school intake is expected to drop below 300,000 for the first time since records began in 1964.
Most of that cohort were born in 2020 and will turn 30 in 2050, building their careers while facing a growing burden of supporting older generations, including those born before 1980.
Minister of Planning and Budget Park Hong-geun described demographic change as “a matter of survival” and called for reforms across education, employment and welfare to sustain economic vitality as the workforce shrinks. He also stressed the need to ease families’ child care burdens and help older people remain active in society.
“We must use advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence to address population shortfalls and adapt immigration policy to reflect practical realities,” he said at a seminar on Oct. 29.
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