Retail investors return to gold market as prices rebound

Individual investors in Korea are returning to the gold market after selling for three consecutive months, as prices have rebounded from a steep correction following their record highs.

According to the Korea Exchange (KRX) on Tuesday, individuals net bought 133 billion won ($94 million) worth of gold on the KRX Gold Market between Aug. 1 and last Friday.

The buying turnaround contrasts sharply with the selling trend that persisted through last month. Retail investors offloaded about 524 billion won worth of gold from May through July, including 125 billion won in May, 348 billion won in June and 51 billion won in July, before reversing course in August.

Over the same period, individual investors also stepped up their purchases of gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Investors are piling back into gold following a swift rally in international prices after a prolonged decline, driven by cooling U.S. inflation data and renewed expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing.

Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a record closing high of $5,354.80 per ounce on Jan. 29 before falling to $3,992.10 on July 16 as last year’s rally lost momentum and U.S.-Iran tensions pushed up crude prices, raising concerns that the Fed would keep monetary policy tight. The drop amounted to more than 25 percent over about five and a half months.

The precious metal then rebounded, surging 11.9 percent from last month’s low to touch $4,467.50 on Aug. 12.

Gold prices have been supported largely by fading expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates at its Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Although July’s U.S. consumer price index came in line with forecasts, potentially giving the Fed room to tighten policy, weak labor market conditions have made an immediate rate hike less likely.

As gold offers no interest or dividend income, it tends to lose its appeal relative to deposits and bonds when interest rates are high. Conversely, demand for gold typically strengthens when expectations of additional rate hikes begin to fade.

Market sentiment has also been bolstered by news that the Bank of Korea (BOK) has stepped into the gold market for the first time in 13 years. Following its purchases of U.S.-listed spot gold ETFs, the central bank also set up a cooperation framework with the KRX and Korea Securities Depository this month to facilitate direct purchases of physical gold.

“The decision was driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and increased volatility in other investment assets,” said Jung Hee-sup, director general at the BOK’s Reserve Management Group.

Still, analysts are divided over the outlook for gold prices.

Oh Jae-young, an analyst at KB Securities, said, “A sustained rally in gold remains unlikely while uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to fuel concerns that the Fed could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance.”

By contrast, Jung Hyun-jong, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, took a more optimistic view, saying structural demand from central banks should help prevent a steep correction like those seen in the past.

“Gold is expected to gain gradually if a slowing U.S. economy and Fed rate cuts drive a meaningful decline in real interest rates in the second half of this year and early next year,” he said.