Brokerages see KOSPI hitting 10,000 this year despite recent tumbles

The won-dollar exchange rate and KOSPI value are displayed on an electronic board at Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, Tuesday. KOSPI closed at 7,271.66, down 244.38 points, or 3.25 percent, from the previous session. Yonhap

Local securities firms are continuing to raise their market forecasts, with many expecting KOSPI to reach the 10,000-point mark within this year despite the benchmark index’s sharp volatility in recent days, analysts said Tuesday.

KOSPI briefly topped the 8,000 mark for the first time last Friday before plunging sharply.

On Tuesday, KOSPI opened at 7,425.66, down 90.38 points, or 1.20 percent, from the previous session, before extending losses to close at 7,271.66, down 244.38 points, or 3.25 percent.

Still, market watchers said stronger earnings growth by semiconductor firms and the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom are likely to remain key drivers behind the market’s upward trajectory.

Hana Securities lifted its projected upper band for KOSPI to 10,380, arguing that the index could realistically surpass the 10,000-point milestone if earnings estimates are achieved.

“Market volatility tends to intensify during bullish cycles, but liquidity and corporate earnings remain the key factors shaping the broader market trend,” said Lee Jae-man, an analyst at Hana Securities.

“KOSPI-listed companies are expected to post combined net profits of 689 trillion won ($456.7 billion) this year, with earnings projected to increase further to 853 trillion won next year,” Lee said.

Meanwhile, iM Securities presented 9,500 points as the upper end of its KOSPI forecast range for the second half of the year, saying the AI investment cycle and robust semiconductor exports are continuing to improve earnings prospects for the Korean stock market despite war-related supply disruptions and inflationary pressure.

“Upward revisions to earnings forecasts led by semiconductor companies have continued unabated,” said Kim Jun-young, an analyst at iM Securities. “Even without multiple expansions, KOSPI reaching the 9,000-point level is now within sight.”

Brokerages continue to raise their target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, the two major chipmakers that have led KOSPI’s record-breaking rally, amid growing optimism over the AI-driven semiconductor boom.

Japan’s Nomura Securities sharply increased its target price for Samsung Electronics to 590,000 won from 340,000 won, while boosting its SK hynix target to 4 million won from 2.34 million won. The brokerage said surging AI-related demand has effectively ushered in a new memory chip supercycle.

Secondary bourse Kosdaq, meanwhile, opened at 1,111.36, up 0.27 points, or 0.02 percent, from the previous session, before closing at 1,084.36, down 26.73 points, or 2.41 percent.

In Seoul’s foreign exchange market, the Korean won opened at 1,493.8 won per dollar, improving by 6.5 won from the previous close, but later reversed course to end onshore trading at 1,507.8 won, down 7.5 won from the previous session.