Seoul stocks soar to all-time high on first trading day of 2026

A dealer smiles at the Hana Bank dealing room in Seoul, Friday, the first trading day of 2026, as the KOSPI closed at 4,309.63, up 2.27 percent from the previous session, breaking through the 4,300 level for the first time ever. Yonhap

The KOSPI climbed above 4,300 points on Friday, the first trading day of 2026, building on the momentum that lifted the benchmark past the 4,000 points mark for the first time last year.

After opening higher, the index continued to gain ground and closed at 4,309.63, up 95.46 points, or 2.27 percent, from the previous session, marking its highest closing on record.

The local stock market opened an hour later than usual at 10 a.m. due to an opening ceremony held earlier in the day, while the closing time remained unchanged at 3:30 p.m.

Major semiconductor stocks drove the gains, with Samsung Electronics surging 7.17 percent to close at 128,500 won ($89) and SK hynix rising 3.99 percent to finish at 677,000 won.

The index’s record-setting performance was further bolstered by strong export figures released during the New Year’s Day holiday.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, outbound shipments in December totaled $69.6 billion, up 13.4 percent from a year earlier and marking the highest December figure on record. The growth rate significantly exceeded the consensus estimate of 8.3 percent.

Global equity markets posted broad gains in 2025 as governments in major economies stepped up liquidity support and momentum in the artificial intelligence sector accelerated, with Korea standing out for its strong performance.

The KOSPI surged 75.6 percent over the year, the highest return among G20 nations and members of the OECD.

Analysts see further gains ahead, citing signs of a mild economic recovery, optimism in the semiconductor sector and improving earnings forecasts.

“The KOSPI is expected to move within a 4,100 to 4,350 range in January, with an overall neutral-to-positive tone,” Kim Yong-goo, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, said. “A virtuous cycle of a global economic recovery, rising sales and improving profits, combined with the government’s aggressive efforts to boost economic activity and equity markets, should underpin the market’s strong start to the year.”

While the KOSPI is expected to maintain its upward trend into 2026, concerns remain that heavy profit concentration in the semiconductor sector could weigh on the broader market.

Based on consensus forecasts compiled by financial market data provider FnGuide, Samsung Electronics is projected to post an operating profit of 87.1 trillion won in fiscal 2026, while SK hynix is expected to earn 77.1 trillion won. Together, the two companies are estimated to account for about 38 percent of the KOSPI’s total operating profit.

Despite the concentration risk, analysts largely agree that the semiconductor industry’s earnings cycle remains intact.

“The memory chip market continues to favor suppliers, even as companies maintain tight capacity management and a cautious investment stance, suggesting the current upcycle could be prolonged,” Ryu Young-ho, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said.

Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, underscored that profit forecasts for semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are expected to be revised higher following the fourth-quarter earnings season of 2025.

"Continued capital spending by U.S. big tech firms is likely to provide further support for the sector," Han said.