Analysts forecast BOK to hold benchmark rate unchanged at upcoming meeting: poll

Local economic experts expect the Bank of Korea (BOK) to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting later this week, with a possible rate hike at its next meeting, a survey showed Sunday.

According to the survey on six economists conducted by Yonhap News Agency, all expected the BOK's Monetary Policy Board to hold the key rate steady at 3 percent at its meeting scheduled for Thursday.

They said the central bank needs time to assess market conditions after raising the benchmark rate twice in a row in July and August.

"Three consecutive rate hikes could place a significant burden on households and domestic companies," said Joo Won, a senior researcher at Hyundai Research Institute. "It is highly likely that the central bank will pause this time to assess the effects of previous rate hikes."

Park Seok-gil, an economist at JPMorgan Korea, expected that the BOK will thoroughly look into economic indicators, given the changes in economic conditions over the past two months.

He cited core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, falling to 2.8 percent in September from 3.4 percent the previous month. The Korean won's appreciation, with the currency hovering around 1,330 won against the U.S. dollar, has also helped offset higher oil prices, he said.

"Although growth momentum is strong and there is significant room to further raise this year's growth forecast, core inflation has stabilized to some extent and the exchange rate is holding steady in the 1,330 won range, so there is insufficient justification for an additional hike," said Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co.

During a parliamentary audit last week, BOK Gov. Shin Hyun-song signaled a possible pause, saying, "When we conduct monetary policy, we always assess how much time economic agents need to adapt and evaluate their ability to do so."

The survey also showed that all six economists expect the BOK to raise the key rate again in November, as consumer price inflation is expected to remain well above its 2 percent target amid strong growth momentum supported by robust semiconductor exports.

"As growth driven by the semiconductor sector continues and inflationary pressures from high oil prices persist, the trend of interest rate hikes is likely to continue," said Ahn Ye-ha, a senior researcher at Kiwoom Securities Co.

Gov. Shin earlier reaffirmed the BOK's hawkish stance, signaling the possibility of further monetary tightening.

"Inflation is expected to remain above the target level for a considerable period," Shin said last week. "We plan to determine the timing and pace of additional hikes while closely monitoring inflation, economic trends and financial stability."