Which global investment banks have the highest 2026 growth forecasts for South Korea?

JP Morgan has the highest forecast among the institutions identified, at 4 percent. Citi expects 3.8 percent growth, while UBS projects 3.5 percent for South Korea in 2026.

How has South Korea’s foreign investment bank growth outlook changed for 2027?

Major foreign investment banks raised their forecast for South Korea’s 2027 economic growth to 2.8 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from a month earlier. The article does not provide institution-specific 2027 forecasts.

Global IBs raise Korea's growth outlooks on chip boom

Q: Why did global investment banks raise South Korea’s 2026 growth forecast?

The banks revised their forecasts upward because they expect the global semiconductor cycle to remain stronger and more resilient than previously anticipated. The semiconductor upcycle was identified as the main factor behind the improved outlook for the Korean economy.

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Summary

Major global investment banks raised their 2026 growth forecasts for South Korea in September, citing a stronger-than-expected semiconductor cycle. The median forecast increased to 3.5 percent from 3.3 percent in August. JP Morgan projected 4 percent growth, while Citi and UBS forecast 3.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. The banks also raised their forecast for 2027 growth to 2.8 percent.

Key Facts

The median 2026 growth forecast from major foreign institutions rose from 2 percent at the end of last year to 3.5 percent in September.
JP Morgan increased its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea by 0.2 percentage point to 4 percent.
Citi raised its forecast to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent, while UBS increased its projection to 3.5 percent from 2.8 percent.
Foreign investment banks lifted their 2027 growth forecast to 2.8 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.

By Yonhap

Published Oct 7, 2026 8:55 am KST

Containers are stacked at a port in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, in this file photo from April 24. Yonhap

Major global investment banks (IBs) have upgraded their forecasts for South Korea's economic growth, citing a strong semiconductor upcycle, a report by the international finance center said Wednesday.

According to the report by the Korea Center for International Finance (KCIF), the median growth forecast by major foreign institutions for 2026 was raised to 3.5 percent in September from 3.3 percent made in August.

They have been upping their growth forecasts for the Korean economy since April this year.

The average forecast stood at 2 percent at the end of last year. It rose to 2.1 percent in January, 2.4 percent in April and 2.8 percent in May.

The upward revisions reflect expectations that the global semiconductor cycle will remain stronger and more resilient than previously anticipated.

Among IBs, JP Morgan expects the Korean economy to grow 4 percent this year, up 0.2 percentage point from a month earlier.

Citi jacked up its growth forecast to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent over the cited period, according to the report.

UBS also raised its forecast to 3.5 percent from 2.8 percent.

For next year, the foreign IBs also raised their growth forecast to 2.8 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from a month earlier, the report showed.

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