AMRO revises up Korean economy's growth projection this year to 3.3%
Summary
AMRO on Monday revised up South Korea’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in its quarterly update report. It also raised the 2027 growth outlook to 2.7 percent from 2.2 percent and projected 2026 consumer inflation at 2.7 percent. The agency warned that slowing AI-related demand, higher energy and transport costs, and climate-linked food price pressures could weigh on the region.
Key Facts
- AMRO said South Korea’s economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, up from its July forecast of 3.1 percent.
- The organization projected Korea’s economy to grow 2.7 percent in 2027, compared with its previous estimate of 2.2 percent.
- AMRO expected consumer prices in South Korea to rise 2.7 percent on-year in 2026, after previously forecasting 2.6 percent.
- For 2027, AMRO cut its inflation forecast to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent.
- AMRO said a slowdown in AI-related demand could weigh on exports and investment, while higher energy, transportation and production costs could add inflationary pressure.
An employee sorts 50,000 won banknotes at Hana Bank's counterfeit bill response center in Jung District, Seoul, Aug. 21. Yonhap
An economic surveillance organization in Asia on Monday projected South Korea's economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, revising up its previous forecast of 3.1 percent.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) made the assessment in its quarterly update report, without further elaborating on the reasons for the revision from its July forecast.
For 2027, the organization expected Asia's No. 4 economy to grow 2.7 percent, compared with its previous estimate of 2.2 percent.
Touching on inflation, the agency expected consumer prices to rise 2.7 percent on-year in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 2.6 percent. For 2027, the inflation forecast was revised down from 2.4 percent to 2.3 percent.
Last month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Korea to 3.7 percent, citing the country's robust exports.
The Paris-based organization's prediction marks a 1.1 percentage-point increase from the 2.6 percent forecast in its June report.
The OECD said strong exports and rising production would drive Korea's economic growth this year, while a gradual recovery in consumption would continue next year.
In September, the Asian Development Bank also raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Korea to 3.2 percent from the 2.6 percent projected in July, citing strong exports and corporate earnings amid the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
AMRO, meanwhile, noted that a slowdown in AI-related demand could weigh on exports and investment activities in the region.
Rising energy, transportation and production costs in the aftermath of the Middle East crisis could also add to inflationary pressures, while climate change could lead to higher food prices, it added.
Other structural challenges for the Asian region include fragmentation and an aging population, the report said.
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