Why did the Asian Development Bank raise Korea’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.2 percent?

The ADB said the revision reflected strong exports and corporate earnings amid the AI boom. It also cited Korea’s growing exports from soaring global demand for AI chips and a gradual recovery in private consumption.

What risks did the ADB say could hurt Korea’s economy in 2026?

The bank warned that rising geopolitical tensions, increased volatility in global financial markets and additional U.S. tariff hikes could weigh on exports and investment. It also said higher global energy prices could add inflation pressure.

How does the ADB’s 2026 outlook compare with other Korean forecasts?

The Ministry of Finance and Economy had already raised its 2026 growth projection to 3 percent in July, and the Korea Development Institute said in August that Korea’s economy would grow 3.2 percent in 2026. The ADB’s new forecast now matches the KDI’s latest estimate.

ADB raises Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 3.2%

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Summary

The Asian Development Bank raised Korea’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.2 percent on Wednesday, citing strong exports and corporate earnings amid the AI boom. It also lifted the 2027 outlook to 2.3 percent. The bank kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 2.7 percent and warned that geopolitical tensions, global market volatility and higher U.S. tariffs could weigh on exports and investment.

Key Facts

The ADB increased its 2026 growth forecast for Korea by 0.6 percentage point from 2.6 percent to 3.2 percent.
The bank raised Korea’s 2027 growth outlook by 0.3 percentage point to 2.3 percent.
The ADB kept its 2026 consumer price inflation forecast for Korea at 2.7 percent and its 2027 forecast at 2.2 percent.
In July, the Ministry of Finance and Economy revised up its 2026 growth projection to 3 percent, citing the semiconductor supercycle.
In August, the Korea Development Institute said Korea’s economy was expected to grow 3.2 percent in 2026, up from a previous forecast of 2.5 percent.

By Yonhap

Published Sep 23, 2026 9:13 am KST

Visitors view semiconductor products at an exhibition in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, Aug. 26. Yonhap

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Korea to 3.2 percent from the 2.6 percent projected in July, citing strong exports and corporate earnings amid the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

The ADB's latest estimate marks a 0.6 percentage-point increase from the previous report, with the bank also raising its 2027 growth outlook for Asia's fourth-largest economy by 0.3 percentage point to 2.3 percent.

The Manila-based bank had projected growth of 1.9 percent and 2.6 percent for 2026 in its April and July reports, respectively, for Asia's No. 4 economy.

The ADB said the revised forecast reflected Korea's growing exports amid soaring global demand for AI chips.

Korea's expansionary fiscal policy and robust corporate earnings are contributing to a gradual recovery in private consumption, it added.

The ADB, however, noted potential risks include rising geopolitical tensions, increased volatility in global financial markets and additional U.S. tariff hikes, which could weigh on exports and investment.

As for inflation, the ADB maintained its July forecast for Korea, predicting consumer prices will likely rise 2.7 percent on-year in 2026.

The ADB said the government's efforts to curb consumer price increases were expected to partially offset inflationary pressures from higher global energy prices and stronger domestic demand.

The development bank maintained its inflation forecast for 2027 at 2.2 percent as well.

In July, the Ministry of Finance and Economy revised up the country's economic growth projection for 2026 to 3 percent in its second-half policy report, up 1 percentage point from its previous outlook, citing the semiconductor supercycle.

In August, the state-run Korea Development Institute (KDI) also said Korea's economy is expected to grow 3.2 percent in 2026, revising up its previous forecast of 2.5 percent.

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