Moon should develop long-term policy on N. Korea

This is the fourth in a series of interviews with international experts on Korea giving advice to President Moon Jae-in on how to overcome challenges and create a better future for the Korean people. ― ED.

By Kim Jae-kyoung

Balbina Hwang

President Moon Jae-in should map out a long-term strategy on North Korea as the reclusive country will never give up its ambitions to become a nuclear weapons state, according to a former U.S. State Department adviser.

“It seems that Moon must settle and coordinate with the Trump administration what the next actions will be should North Korea decide to launch another missile test, even an ICBM, or conduct another nuclear test,” said Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, in an interview.

But the much greater issue is what Moon’s long-term approach and strategy is toward North Korea, as a whole, she added.

Hwang expects that the North Korea issue cannot be resolved in the next four years under the Trump-Moon years, whether it is defined narrowly as the ‘nuclear or missile’ issue, or even the broader issue of North Korea’s regime and its continued survival.

“There can be no resolution to the North Korean issue if we mean the nuclear issue. The Kim Jung-un regime will never give up its nukes. So, unless the U.S. and South Korea are willing to pursue regime change, then it cannot be resolved,” she said.

“Regime change will not be allowed by Moon, and even Trump has stated officially that regime change is not the U.S. policy,” she added.

Hwang, who served as a special adviser on East Asian affairs in the George W. Bush administration, indicates that it is important for Moon to understand North Korea’s rhetoric and what it aims to do with its nuclear weapons.

“North Korea will make positive overtures to South Korea, while making separate overtures toward the U.S,” she said.

“I do not believe any such overtures toward ‘dialogue’ with both South Korea and the U.S. are sincere, nor are they an indication that North Korea has changed its strategic ambitions to pursue nuclear weapons and missiles,” she added.

She pointed out that with nuclear weapons, the North is seeking to control its own destiny, and shape power on the Korean Peninsula according to its own vision, which is a united Korea under its ideology.

“Of course, such a vision is not realistic to anyone else, especially most South Koreans, but the North Korean regime will never give up this goal,” she said.

According to Hwang’s analysis of Trump’s approach, Moon needs to understand Trump’s personality and negotiation style before sitting with him.

“President Trump’s approach may be even the most unpredictable and uncertain of all, even more than Moon, and certainly more than Kim Jong-un,” she said. “I think none of us can really predict how Trump will react to Moon or his policies.”

The Washington-based North Korea expert pointed out that the greatest hurdle for the future bilateral relationship is that there seems to be two bifurcated arenas of “trust” in the relationship and alliance, which is necessary to develop a unified approach toward North Korea.

“One is between the two leaders and administrations, and the other is more broadly among the SK and U.S. citizens,” she said.

“Even if the two leaders develop good rapport with each other, both leaders will very likely utter inflammatory rhetoric for their own political reasons, but unfortunately this will likely erode the broad public ‘trust’ that is necessary to continue support for the alliance and good bilateral relations.”

She stressed that this is crucial not just for regional and global security cooperation far beyond the North Korean issue, but also the important economic and trade relationship, and even social relations.

“This will put pressure on both South Korea’s National Assembly, and on the U.S. Congress, by causing them to question the alliance,” she said.

“Ultimately, such divisions between the two countries only benefit North Korea, making a short-term solution to the nuclear and missile issue even more difficult, if not impossible to achieve,” she added.