Will Korean steelmakers rebound as China’s export controls take effect?
POSCO chairman's upcoming Beijing visit draws attention
The sun rises above POSCO's steel mill in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province, Dec. 28, 2025. Yonhap
Cautious optimism is emerging over a potential recovery of Korea’s steel industry in 2026, following China’s decision to regulate steel exports through a licensing system starting Jan. 1.
Amid a prolonged slump in the sector, attention is on whether the world’s largest steel-producing country’s latest measure will curb the glut of low-priced steel products in the global market.
In December, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that exporters of some 300 steel items would need to apply for licenses based on export contracts and product-quality inspection certificates from manufacturers.
“This measure should help keep global supply, demand and trade in better balance,” the state-backed China Iron and Steel Association said in a statement.
China’s robust steel exports fueled a growing protectionist backlash worldwide throughout 2025.
Seoul has imposed antidumping tariffs on thick steel plates and hot-rolled coils from China and is reviewing precoated and galvanized steel sheets from the country at the request of Korean firms that have long suffered against the aggressive price competition of Chinese producers. Some of those firms even finished their 2025 production earlier than scheduled and shut down factories to cope with sluggish demand.
“Downward pressure on prices in the domestic steel market will ease to some extent due to lower Chinese steel production and stronger trade barriers against Chinese steel plates and hot-rolled coils,” NICE Investors Service analyst Song Dong-hwan said.
Steel industry officials, however, remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the Chinese measure, which does not ban oversupply in practice.
“Given the Chinese government’s lukewarm stance on tackling oversupply, meaningful improvement is unlikely in the short term,” Korea Investors Service analyst Jeong Ik-su said.
Rather than easing the pressure, China’s export controls could push its steel producers toward higher-end markets, potentially exposing Korean companies to even fiercer competition from Chinese rivals. In October, China unveiled a plan to promote value-added steel production, and its ongoing restructuring of the steel industry aims to remove outdated facilities and improve competitiveness.
Against this backdrop, speculation is rising that POSCO Group Chairman Chang In-hwa may ask the Chinese government to cut steel exports to Korea during his upcoming visit to Beijing as part of a business delegation accompanying President Lee Jae Myung.
Although Cheong Wa Dae declined to confirm the delegation list, Chang is expected to join some 200 business leaders, including the chiefs of Korea’s four largest conglomerates, who will accompany Lee on his state visit to China from Jan. 4 to 7.
“Talks will also address ways to expand opportunities for economic cooperation,” presidential spokesperson Kang Yu-jung said.
POSCO signed an agreement in July with a Chinese company to sell its money-losing stainless steel plant in China, 28 years after it began operating the facility. The sale has been seen as a sign that the company intends to shift its focus to India and other emerging markets.