By Choi Sung-jin
The higher the housing price, the lower the birthrate, and the later women have their first child, an empirical study shows.
According to the report by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, housing prices in Korea, regardless of models and methods of estimation, have negative effects on the total fertility rate, to a statistically significant extent.
The analysis showed the correlation coefficient between housing prices and total fertility was -0.07, while that between housing prices and the age of first childbirth was 0.77. A coefficient closer to 1 means it has a greater positive correlation, while that closer to -1 means it has greater negative correlation.
Correlation coefficients between rent prices and the birthrate or first childbirth age were -0.68 and 0.86, respectively, the report said.
In 2013, housing prices and rents were highest in Seoul among 16 provinces and metropolises, and the total fertility rate in the capital was lowest with 0.968 while its first childbirth age was highest at 31.5 years. The situations were similar with other large cities and provinces where home prices are high, such as Gyeonggi Province, Busan, Incheon and Daegu.
But fertility rates were relatively high and the first childbirth age lower in Jeolla, Chungcheong, Gyeongsang and Jeju provinces where home prices were lower.
“These results show high housing prices lead to heavier living costs, forcing residents to delay or abandon marriage and childbirth,” the report said. “A housing policy focusing on young, homeless people will be able to raise the birthrate in the long term.”