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Who will rise, fall in financial arena?

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By Kang Seung-woo

A major shakeup in the financial industry is soon expected as the tenure for two top regulators are expiring.

Keen attention is now being directed to predict the future of Strategy and Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun. But by new Cheong Wa Dae standards to avoid a drastic reshuffle, Yoon may survive as one of the longest serving finance ministers.

Lucky him! There was a rumor in October that he would be the first to be sacked for mishandling preparations for the G20 Seoul Summit.

More pressing are the positions of Financial Services Commission (FSC) Chairman Chin Dong-soo and Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) Governor Kim Jong-chang, whose terms are both expiring. Already Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK) Thursday named Cho Joon-hee the new CEO.

The term of the FSC chairman is scheduled to expire in January 2011. The only spot left for Chin, 61, to go up is Yoon’s job.

“Chin played a leading role in launching the ‘Sunshine Loan’ program for the underprivileged,” an official said on condition of anonymity. “This is one of the key financial pillars to support President Lee Myung-bak’s fair society campaign.”

The field of candidates to be Chin’s successors is large and varied.

According to sources at the financial industry, Baek Yong-ho, the secretary for policy planning and coordination, Choi Joong-kyung, senior secretary to the president for economic affairs and former ambassador to the Philippines, are strong candidates, but, considering President Lee Myung-bak’s policy tendency which does not often replace his aides, Rhee Chang-yong, secretary general of the Presidential Committee for the G20 Summit, is often mentioned as the most likeliest.

Also talked about are FSC Vice Chairman Kwon Hyouk-se, and Korea Federation of Bank (KFB) Chairman Shin Dong-kyu.

“Rhee has drawn a good reputation, as he has developed a smooth personal rapport in the financial sector along with a wealth of expertise garnered while leading the G20 preparations to a successful end,” the official said.

Kwon also earns healthy reviews for helping Chin promote the government’s plan for low-income households such as the Sunshine Loan.

Meanwhile, Kim’s spell as FSS chief is scheduled to come to an end in March next year.

FSS Senior Deputy Governor Kim Yong-hwan and Kwon are referred to as candidates as Kim’s successor.

“As the market supervision is taking on added importance, the general opinion is that a new governor should be selected from among those inside rather than outside,” the official said.

Kim and Kwon were initially on the candidate list for the IBK CEO job, but the FSC recommended the bank’s deputy CEO and senior executive vice president as the new head of the state-run lender.

“Thus far, Kwon had a slight edge over Kim, but given that Kwon, along with the new IBK CEO, is from the TK area, which means Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, Kim can take advantage of it as a way of region allocation in the appointment of government staffs," a government official said.

Also, former IBK CEO Yun Yong-ro, is included on the candidate list.

Yun, 55, who headed the IBK from December 2007 to December 2010, is lauded for its subsequent growth and competitive edge.

During his three-year stint, the IBK saw its total assets increase by 4.7 billion won to 17.13 trillion won to become the nation’s fourth-largest lender by assets, surpassing Hana Bank.

According to inside sources, Yoon, the former chairman of the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC), the predecessor of the FSS, is forecast to stay on, as he is preparing for the upcoming meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, scheduled for February in France.

However, if he is let go, Rep. Yoon Jin-shik of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) is seen as the strongest replacement, while former Deputy Finance Minister Kim Seok-dong is widening the candidate pool.