Prediction markets doubt fast recovery in Hormuz shipping

Prediction markets are skeptical that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal in the coming weeks, despite talk of possible Washington-Tehran diplomacy.

As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, traders assigned a 39 percent chance that ship traffic in the Strait will “return to normal” by the end of April in a forum on Polymarket, a prediction market. This probability is down sharply from 77 percent on March 10, reflecting increasing doubts that the waterway will reopen quickly.

Meanwhile on Kalshi, another prediction market platform, traders were a bit more positive about that possibility — but still short of a sure bet. Only 46 percent saw traffic returning to normal before May 1, rising to just over half by May 15 and about two‑thirds by June 1.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 percent of global crude oil transit and carries about 70 percent of Korea’s crude imports from the Middle East, has become a major vulnerability for energy security in Korea and around the world. Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, Iran has severely disrupted trade between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea in response to U.S.-Israeli military strikes.

On Monday, Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Hyun urged his Iranian counterpart to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and to take steps to ease tensions, according to the ministry.

Iran told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz if ‌they coordinate with Iranian authorities, according to a Tuesday report by Reuters.