Trump's brief visit, rebuff of Xi cast shadow over APEC meetings

U.S. President Donald Trump responds to a question during a press conference at the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Saturday (local time). EPA-Yonhap

U.S. President Donald Trump's potential brief stay in Korea during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings, coupled with uncertainty over a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, is clouding what was expected to be a major diplomatic showcase for the Lee Jae Myung administration.

Amid a raging trade war between the world's two largest economies, the fate of the planned Trump-Xi summit remains unclear. Analysts say this development may diminish global attention to the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, set to be held in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1.

According to diplomatic sources, Trump is expected to arrive in Korea on Oct. 29 and stay for only one or two days.

This means the U.S. leader is likely to miss the two-day main event, which will gather the leaders of APEC member economies for a meeting and a gala dinner on Oct. 31 and a media briefing the following day.

Trump's potential absence from the leaders' meeting has fueled skepticism over the summit's substance. At the event, the APEC members were set to discuss sensitive trade issues amid deepening global economic uncertainties triggered by U.S. tariffs.

For Korea, the APEC gathering is the first major diplomatic event hosted under the Lee administration since it took office in June. The government had hoped to use the summit to showcase its vision of "pragmatic diplomacy" on the global stage.

Officials in Seoul have been stepping up diplomatic efforts to draft a so-called "Gyeongju Declaration," a joint statement that would require consensus among all APEC leaders. But if Trump skips the meeting, the chances of issuing a formal document appear slim.

"Given Trump's tendency to avoid multilateral gatherings, it wouldn’t be surprising if he skips the leaders' meeting. He doesn't want the U.S. to be seen as 'one of them' — he wants to stand out," said Kang Jun-young, head of the Center for International Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping raises his glass in a toast after speaking during the National Day reception at the Great Hall of the People on the eve of the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing, Sept. 30. AP-Yonhap

Uncertainty surrounding a much-anticipated Trump-Xi bilateral meeting has further clouded the outlook for APEC.

Tensions escalated after Beijing imposed sweeping restrictions on rare earth exports on Thursday, a move that drew a furious response from Trump.

"I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so," Trump wrote Friday on social media. The reversal came less than two weeks after the two leaders spoke by phone and agreed to meet during APEC.

A day later, however, Trump told reporters at the White House that the meeting with Xi had not been canceled. "I don’t know that we’re going to have it, but I’m going to be there regardless. So I would assume we might have it," he said, signaling his intention to attend the APEC gathering.

The U.S. administration has announced retaliatory measures in response to China's export controls, saying that starting Nov. 1 — or sooner, depending on any further actions by Beijing — Washington will impose an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

In response, an official from China's commerce ministry said in a statement Sunday, "Willful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China. China’s position on the trade war is consistent: we do not want it, but we are not afraid of it."

The growing tug-of-war between Washington and Beijing poses uncertainty for the bilateral summit, but analysts say a Trump-Xi meeting in Gyeongju is still possible.

"The Nov. 1 deadline set by Trump suggests he may be aiming for a surprise, dramatic agreement during the APEC event, which is a tactic he has often used," Kang said, noting that Beijing has also left the door open for talks.