Korea's exports forecast to decline 3% in Q3 amid US tariff impacts

Containers are packed at a port in the Korean city of Pyeongtaek, July 31. Yonhap

Korea's exports are projected to decline by around 3 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, as the United States' aggressive tariff scheme begins to affect global trade and industry, the state-run Export-Import Bank of Korea said Monday.

Outbound shipments for the July-September period are expected to reach around $167 billion, down about 3 percent from the same period last year, according to the bank's overseas economic research institute.

The forecast comes amid rising economic uncertainty triggered by tariffs imposed under U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, while the positive effects of advance inventory orders seen in the first half are now fading, the bank said.

Last week, Seoul and Washington announced a long-awaited tariff agreement under which the U.S. will impose a 15 percent tariff on Korean imports, against the initially threatened 25 percent, in exchange for Korea's investment of $350 billion in the U.S.

"The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the second half. Although the two countries have reached a tariff agreement, future changes in the trade environment could either mitigate or worsen the decline in exports," a bank official said.

During the second quarter of 2025, exports totaled $175.2 billion, up 2.1 percent from the same period last year and 9.8 percent from the previous quarter, government data showed.