Is China replacing the US as a geostrategic security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific?
Faisal Ahmed
Alexandre Lambert
By Faisal Ahmed and Alexandre Lambert
The most recent White House announcement of $345 million in military aid to Taiwan has infuriated China. China has accused the United States of turning Taiwan into a powder keg and ammunition depot. While the U.S. is all set to place a huge cost on China for any possible invasion of Taiwan, it is slowly losing its “position of strength” to China elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific region. In fact, in recent times, China seems to have adopted an aggressive posture in positioning itself as ― what we call ― a “guarantor of geostrategic security solutions (G2S2)” power in the Indo-Pacific. This has, increasingly, made a dent in the ability of the U.S. to remain a net security solutions provider in the region. And there are reasons to believe this is the case.
First, in March this year, China brokered a Saudi-Iran reconciliation, thus bringing the West Asian rivals diplomatically closer. In fact, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), now a trade bloc, was formed in 1981 out of fear of a possible Iranian attack. Saudi Arabia was the main force behind the establishment of the 6-member GCC congregation ― formed after the 1979 Iranian revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini.
Of late, the threat from Iran has guided the foreign policy pursuits of Saudi Arabia and a few other GCC countries. The contemporary issue of concern for them has been the Iranian nuclear program, and its support for Houthi rebels. However, as global geopolitics unfolded in the post-pandemic era, Saudi Arabia was adequately convinced that the U.S. could not be trusted in providing regional security solutions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia now intends to secure its strategic vulnerabilities vis-a-vis Iran by leveraging Beijing's favorable relations with Tehran, which have been reinforced by Iran acceding to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization-SCO this year.
Second, in February this year, China called for a political settlement of the Ukraine Crisis and recommended a 12-point peace deal. Primarily, it called upon the U.S. to abandon its Cold War mentality, and asserted that expansion of military blocs cannot guarantee regional security in Europe. China also called for ensuring stability in supply chains, and putting an end to unilateral sanctions ― albeit without naming the U.S. It also supported the Black Sea Grain Initiative for ensuring food security. This initiative, negotiated by Russia, Turkey and the United Nations in mid-2022 amid the war, sought to serve as a humanitarian corridor for allowing the exportation of Ukrainian grains and oilseeds. Russia, however, has recently pulled out of this initiative, suspecting Kyiv of being behind the attacks on the Crimean bridge. This withdrawal has inflicted a huge economic cost on Ukraine. The West is again looking forward to China ― a major grain importer from Ukraine ― to pressurize Russia to rejoin the initiative.
Third, China proposed a Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022 aimed at upholding the principle of indivisible security. This year in February, it also presented a concept paper for its implementation that focused on both traditional and non-traditional security aspects. The paper also called for a United Nations-backed security governance that could potentially lead to post-war reconstruction efforts. Moreover, it succinctly called for a nuclear non-proliferation regime in Iran, Korean peninsula denuclearization and strengthening the Middle East security architecture ― all of which have been witnessing a failure of American efforts.
Fourth, in 2022, China entered into a security agreement with the Solomon Islands ― a small island in the South Pacific. This alarmed both the U.S. and Australia, as it called for strengthening the island nation's national security, and created possibilities for deploying Chinese security forces there. Also, recently a deal on police cooperation has been signed between China and the Solomon Islands. Most of the Pacific island countries including Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and others are signatories to the Belt and Road Initiative, and rely on Chinese investments, development aid and concessional loans.
Fifth, China is no stranger to the Indian Ocean islands. It has developed an overseas military base in Djibouti, and has been eyeing to establish such bases in the Seychelles, Madagascar and elsewhere. In the Western Indian Ocean, China is undertaking anti-piracy exercises too. Since 2008, the Indian Navy too has been undertaking anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. India has also revived the Colombo Security Conclave formed in 2011 by India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. The group now includes Mauritius as a new member, and Bangladesh and the Seychelles as Observers. Moreover, India's ambitious security initiative in the Indian Ocean i.e. Security and Growth for All in the Region-SAGAR was also unveiled in 2015. However, these frameworks have not received strong support from the U.S., which claims to work with its allies like India to strengthen Indo-Pacific security architecture, but seems to struggle to find a suitable regional role for itself.
Importantly, regional security initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) have already been diluted by the U.S. to include several non-traditional security issues e.g. climate change etc. Also, the U.S. has shown an unsolicited urgency in co-opting the U.K. and Australia to form a new security alliance called AUKUS (Australia-U.K.-U.S.). In fact, in April this year, China already gave Mandarin names to almost a score of sea-bed features in the Indian Ocean, and a Chinese seismic survey ship Hai Yang Shi You 760 also conducted ocean bed mapping. As the Sino-U.S. rivalry takes its own course amid mutual counter-narratives, without doubt, many smaller economies in the Indo-Pacific may be compelled to rely on China as their new G2S2 power.
Faisal Ahmed is a professor in the field of international business teaching trade and geopolitics at the FORE School of Management, New Delhi, India. Alexandre Lambert is the academic director of the Geneva Institute of Geopolitical Studies, Geneva, Switzerland.