Best way for Trump to persuade China to up the pressure on North Korea
By Lee Seong-hyon
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Trump’s expression of willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un, essentially, should be seen as his signal to China, rather than to Kim. Trump’s North Korean policy, despite his harsh criticism of Obama’s handling of Pyongyang, is the same as Obama’s: to outsource the North Korean problem to China to solve. It won’t work. The U.S. and China don’t share enough strategic trust in East Asia, as evidenced by their discord on THAAD. Trump’s best strategy on North Korea is to make China less relevant in the game and enact his diplomatic rhetoric into action; meet Kim over hamburger.
Trump has been displaying high public confidence that his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping would soon straitjacket Kim’s two hands to contain his nuclear and missile libido. That won’t happen.
Trump seems in an experimental mindset to test the assumption that China would only take limited action against North Korea. “We're going to test that assumption,” Trump’s top diplomat Tillerson also said. Cutting off oil, for instance, will be seen as China’s showing “sincerity” in this regard and is something widely demanded by American and South Korean security experts. However, the oil saga is a myth that has been widely reported but not substantiated, according to a person who directly raised this question to Wang Yi, who was China’s top negotiator on North Korea and now the foreign minister.
China hands are patiently tolerating with the Team Trump’s “learning curve” with China. But sooner or later, Trump’s diplomatic intercourse with the Beijing regime will end up stillborn.
China’s current strategy is to bide time, while establishing the appearance of cooperation with Washington, to dissuade Trump’s contemplating a military option on North Korea. The upcoming presidential election in South Korea promises a major shift in policy toward North Korea in a direction Beijing can live with.
In the bigger scheme of things, China and the U.S. are increasingly locked in a “rules-setting” competition globally. China feels increasingly uncomfortable with the “rules-based” international order, which China interprets as “U.S. rules.” Instead of following the U.S. rules, now China wants to set its own rules. Xi pursues the “Chinese dream” (zhongguo meng), not American dream.
Xi’s attending the Davos World Economic Forum was the boldest Chinese attempt to compete with the United States’ dominant position in world economic and strategic institutions. There, Xi proclaimed that China would seize the role as the leader of “globalization” when Trump was preaching isolationism.
Under Xi, China created a World Bank of its own, called the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Xi then frontloaded a new Silk Road project, "One Belt, One Road," that links Asia with Europe. Xi also declared China a “maritime power” (haiyang qiangguo) and has been continuing military buildup in the South China Sea.
China is trying to snatch American allies, such as the Philippines. (America is doing the same, for instance, with Myanmar). China is enlarging its sphere of influence by providing (or withholding) economic incentives and privileged seats in China-sponsored high-level gatherings. Overall, Asian nations are steadily pulled into China’s orbit as Trump puts “America First.”
Common discussions on China’s behavior on North Korea often neglects this bigger Chinese regional strategy and its relationship with the U.S. In fact both Washington and Beijing tend to see the North Korean issue under the rubric of their bilateral relationship and regional rivalry. When Beijing and Washington are sending out sound bites on Pyongyang, they are often sending signals and warnings to each other. For instance, Trump’s re-deployment of the USS Carl Vinson is aimed at China; to pressure China to do more on North Korea. Taken together, this indicates the limits of cooperation between China and the U.S. on North Korea.
Trump does not need China to make progress on North Korea. Washington has been consciously avoiding this notion, because it would mean acknowledging America lacks good options in dealing with Pyongyang. But it’s time to think outside the box. China is America’s Freudian obsession that needs to be discarded in dealing with North Korea. In fact, Pyongyang is a manageable threat Washington alone can deal with. America’s best strategy with China in dealing with North Korea is to sit down with Kim over hamburger and make China less relevant.
Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute. Reach him at sunnybbsfs@gmail.com