Global IBs raise Korea growth outlooks amid 'K-shaped' recovery risks
Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong, first row right, inspects the clean room facilities at the company's advanced semiconductor R&D complex in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, Dec. 22, 2025. Courtesy of Samsung Electronics
Major global investment banks (IBs) have upgraded their forecasts for Korea's economic growth, citing a strong semiconductor upcycle, but warned that the economy is showing signs of an uneven "K-shaped recovery," a report by the international finance center said Tuesday.
According to a report by the Korea Center for International Finance (KCIF), the median growth forecast by major foreign institutions for 2026 was raised to 2.0 percent in January from 1.8 percent in early November.
Goldman Sachs lifted its growth outlook to 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent, while UBS raised its forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 2.2 percent.
The upward revisions reflect expectations that the global semiconductor cycle will remain stronger and more resilient than previously anticipated.
The investment banks, however, cautioned that the Korean economy has entered a "K-shaped" recovery, characterized by a robust technology sector and a weak non-tech field, the report said.
Citi and Goldman Sachs noted that non-tech industries continue to struggle amid U.S. tariff-related shocks and slowing global demand, while tech exports surge.
Goldman Sachs added that such sectors as steel, petrochemicals, consumer electronics and electric vehicles are facing deteriorating profitability due to chronic oversupply, weighing on overall export growth.
HSBC pointed out that business sentiment among small and mid-sized companies remains below the long-term average, according to the report.