Core Work Force to Fall Below 20 Mil. in 2011
By Lee Hyo-sik
Staff Reporter
Korea's work force is aging fast amid the country's rapidly falling birthrate, with its economically-active population aged between 25 and 49 estimated to fall below 20 million in 2011 and to continue to decline afterward.
It is feared that the shrinking ``core'' labor force will dampen domestic demand and other economic activities and lead to an era of low growth.
Normally, the economically-productive population includes those aged between 15 and 64, but in reality, those in the 25-49 age bracket are the most active and productive.
Analysts here warn that Asia's fourth-largest economy should take a range of drastic steps as soon as possible to boost the low birthrate and encourage more women and senior citizens to take part in value-added businesses.
According to Statistics Korea and the Bank of Korea (BOK) Thursday, Korea's workers aged 25-49 are projected to total 19.95 million in 2011, down from 20.43 million this year and dipping below 20 million for the first time since 2000. The figure peaked at 20.66 million in 2007 and has headed downward for the past two years.
The trend will likely persist down the road as fewer children are being born here, reducing the country's labor force and weakening its economic vitality.
In 2015, the number will likely reach 18.97 million. It is expected to drop below 18 million in 2021 and 17 million in 2025, indicating Korea's core workforce will shrink by one million every five years.
``A sufficient labor supply is one of the key factors in determining growth potential. But here, the number of productive workers has and will decline in the future, posing a serious threat to Korea's vitality. First, we should take drastic measures to raise the birthrate, improve the use of public resources and encourage more women and senior citizens to participate in economic activities,'' LG Economic Research Institute senior economist Lee Geun-tae said.
Lee suggested the government nurture new growth engines, shift the nation's economic structure to be more efficient and less labor-intensive, and attract more foreign workers in order to achieve sustainable expansion.
``We should also increase social welfare and other spending as an efficient way to boost local demand. Also, the public and private sectors must join hands to increase the birthrate,'' he said.
By municipality, the number of people aged between 25-49 residing in Gyeonggi Province is expected to peak at 5.15 million in 2010 and decline afterward, while the figure for Seoul reached its highest point in 2007 at 4.56 million and is estimated to decrease to 4.42 million in 2011.
Analysts attribute the rapidly dwindling productive population to the low birthrate, with a growing number of young Koreans delaying marriage due to increasing financial difficulties over the past few years, including surging home prices.
They also say a rising sense of individualism and shift in priorities from marriage to academic achievement and careers among young adults have reduced the number of marriages over the years.
Even among married couples, many decide not to have children. Costs associated with childcare and unstable employment conditions are said to have discouraged many women here from having babies.
Korea's birthrate, or the average number of babies expected per woman aged 15-49, has been declining for more than 20 years. The Planned Population Federation of Korea said Wednesday that the nation's average birthrate during the past five years was 1.22, the second-lowest in the world.