[ANALYSIS] Is Samsung Electronics losing competence in NAND?

SK, Micron, Kioxia boast advanced stacking technology

By Baek Byung-yeul

Samsung Electronics has held a solid lead in the NAND flash memory chip market with more than a 30 percent share. But rival companies appear to be challenging Samsung's technological competence as they are starting to show better workmanship.

NAND flash memory is a type of non-volatile storage technology that does not require power to retain data. With IT devices and servers for data centers requiring bigger storage capacity, stacking as many thin layers as possible has become a top priority for NAND flash chip makers.

Samsung has yet to announce its latest NAND stacking technology that goes beyond its current 128-layer chips, while competitors such as SK hynix, Micron and Kioxia are racing to reveal cutting-edge designs. This has prompted analysts to believe that the memory chip giant may be losing its technological edge.

Last November, U.S. chip maker Micron announced the development of the industry's first 176-layer NAND flash chip. SK Hynix followed by unveiling its own 176-layer chip in December.

Japan's Kioxia also announced recently that it succeeded in developing 162-layer 3D NAND together with Western Digital. They said the new product is 40 percent smaller than previous 112-layer technology and can provide more density and lower read latency.

Jim Handy, a semiconductor industry analyst at Objective Analysis, said Samsung's leadership in the NAND flash industry won't change anytime soon, but agreed that it is losing competence in terms of stacking up more layers.

"Yes, Samsung is behind its competitors. This is not the first time that Samsung has fallen behind its competition in NAND flash. I remember in 2012 when Samsung had the least advanced process at 27-nanometer while everyone else was shipping 24-nanometer or 25-nanometer parts," the analyst told The Korea Times.

Asked why Samsung has not announced its new NAND flash that has higher stacks than 162 or 176 layers, Handy pointed out the company has depended too much on a single-deck technology while its rivals split their stacks into two decks.

"As far as I know, having higher stacks is the most efficient way to increase storage capacity. Samsung has been pursuing a more difficult path. The company increases its layer count by using a single-deck approach while others have migrated to two decks. In theory, a single deck should be less expensive to produce, but it takes longer to develop, and this appears to be why Samsung has fallen behind," he said.

Samsung expects demand for NAND chips to rise this year as more smartphones will be sold, while prolonged social distancing measures will also boost sales of IT devices such as laptops. For server demand, data centers will increasingly order NAND chips this year as well.

To better compete with its rivals, Samsung is also preparing to launch a seventh-generation V-NAND using a double-deck approach, according to the firm's Chief Financial Officer Choi Yoon-ho.

"To give you an update on our NAND, our single stack sixth-generation V-NAND has already completed a ramp-up. And this year, we will be scaling up production. Also in the next generation, that's the seventh-generation V-NAND, we are planning to adopt a double stack for the first time," Choi told investors in January. "This will give us the advantage of having the smallest stack height in the industry. And on top of that, by using the know-how we've accumulated working with single stack, we expect to maintain outstanding cost competitiveness even with multi-stack on seventh-generation V-NAND."

Despite the company's vision, the analyst said it remains to be seen whether Samsung can see markedly better results with the new approach.

"It is more difficult to develop a single-deck device, and that has slowed Samsung's progress. Samsung has stated that it will use a two-deck approach for its seventh-generation V-NAND. Since Samsung is not already producing a two-deck NAND, it must learn how to do something that its competitors already understand very well," Handy noted.

But he has not changed his view that Samsung will continue to lead the NAND market. "Samsung is maintaining its market share leadership. This is the company's main focus, so I don't think that will change. In technology, Samsung sometimes leads and sometimes follows. Today the company's NAND technology is behind that of some of their competitors," the analyst said.

Watch out for YMTC

The analyst said there is no doubt that Samsung will maintain its leadership in the NAND flash business, but, in the long run, the biggest threat to the Korean company could be Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), the largest memory chip maker in China.

YMTC wowed the memory chip industry last year by announcing the development of a 128-layer 3D NAND. The company did not officially announce it is capable of mass-producing the product, but the successful development of the 128-layer NAND could increase its presence in the industry.

On the back of the Chinese government's push to make the country one of the leaders in the chip industry, YMTC is expected to achieve steady growth, the analyst said.

"Samsung's biggest long-term threat in NAND flash is YMTC in China. YMTC has an incredible source of capital for financing new production facilities, and is not required to be profitable," he said. "Whenever the company learns how to produce NAND flash in high volumes, it will grow rapidly by taking market share away from other NAND flash makers. When this happens I believe that Samsung may lose its No.1 ranking."