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Wishful thinking amid both positives and risks

The KOSPI has shown some recovery since July, recouping some of the losses of this year. The index fell 22.2 percent up until June, one-year Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) yields rose to 3 percent on June 30 and have fallen since, suggesting that the policy rate is likely to peak around the 3-percent level. The market also no longer expects the Fed to hike the interest rate aggressively given the economic slowdown. Further, market expectations appear to be based on the expectation that U.S. inflation has already peaked.

2022-08-22 15:19

Face the facts but don't be overwhelmed by them

The “Stockdale paradox” is about conflicting duality: accepting the brutal facts of reality but maintaining an unwavering faith in the endgame. Jim Stockdale, a high-ranking U.S. navy officer, survived an eight-year imprisonment in Hanoi during the Vietnam War without giving up hope of freedom while facing the brutal fact that he would not be returning home any time soon, and definitely not for Christmas that year.

2022-07-11 16:32

Time to be conservative

I am often asked how the U.S. dollar-Korean won exchange rate will move in the near term, especially by acquaintances who have to send money to the U.S. for their kids. They are worried about the recent rapid pace of the won's depreciation and are feeling the pain of having to spend 10 to 15 percent more in Korean won terms to send their kids to school in the U.S. Corporates, especially importers, are facing similar pressure. Their profits can fluctuate by over 10 percent depending on the time of buying and selling dollars.

2022-05-09 16:55

Growth likely to prevail despite headwinds

Economic news has been pretty grim lately. The Omicron variant has been seen to be more contagious than the Delta variant, necessitating restrictions and leading to lockdowns globally. Inflation remains high on the back of fiscal expansion, high commodity prices and global supply bottlenecks.

2022-01-12 17:01

Pragmatic approach to Bitcoin needed

A few months ago, when I was asked to write about Bitcoin, I declined to do so for two reasons: first, because I did not understand Bitcoin, and second, I was restricted from commenting on it given that our bank's research did not cover it.

2021-11-08 15:50

What we learned about Korea's economy during pandemic

The government and the Bank of Korea (BOK) have made vital policy changes aimed at withdrawing the liquidity that they released during the COVID-19 pandemic. The central bank has raised its base rate by 25 basis points, earlier than any other Asian economy, and the government tightened macro-prudential policy in order to control household debt. We believe that these efforts reflect a desire to normalize the economic cycle disrupted by the pandemic.

2021-10-04 13:04

Explaining Korea's policy mix

“Fiscal and monetary policies should complement each other, depending on the economic situation.”

2021-07-19 16:26

Get ready for interest rate hikes

Over the past week, Korea reported 577 daily confirmed COVID-19 cases on average. The number of cases has not been declining, contrary to expectations that the vaccine rollout would reduce the domestic caseload. While vaccination delays and rising infections are fueling concerns about the Korean economy, we still expect solid economic growth this year. Along with this growth, we forecast that inflation will rise. Rising inflation is likely to prompt the Bank of Korea (BOK) to raise interest rates early next year, after having lowered them during the pandemic.

2021-05-16 17:17

Korean won likely to stay strong

The Korean won has depreciated about 4.9 percent against the U.S. dollar so far this year. The drop has been faster than expected, but despite this weakness, we remain bullish on the won in the long run, as we believe fundamentals favor the currency.

2021-03-14 17:01

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