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The Korea Times

Entertainment & Arts

SCMP
Asia

The Korea Times

Opinion

Columnists

15. Park Chong-hoon

Time to tone down the pessimism

South Korea's economy faces various challenges, such as rising inflation, falling real wages, a persistent trade deficit and a weakening real estate market, but the overriding concern for the market is Korea's declining exports to its key trading partner, China.

2023-05-15 17:01

Prepare for the worst, but no need for pessimism

South Korea's trade deficit has been a cause for concern for the past 12 months due to a decline in semiconductor exports and exports to China. A widening trade deficit could impact the Korean won and monetary policy, prompting the Bank of Korea (BOK) to hike the base rate further to stabilize the currency. Moreover, the trade deficit may negatively affect economic growth by reducing imports and decreasing investment and economic activity.

2023-03-13 16:40

Expect timely fiscal expansion

“Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget - and I'll tell you what you value.” -Joe Biden The government budget represents the political philosophy of the current government. The annual budget decisions can often be driven more by political than economic considerations, with more emphasis on the distribution of funds than on supporting growth.

2023-01-10 16:50

Managing market expectations will be key

The Korean won continues to depreciate, showing no signs of improvement this year. Starting the year at the 1,190 level, the currency has reached the mid-1,400s to the dollar, down 17.2 percent year to date, largely due to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, relative to emerging market countries such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia, the Korean won has declined the fastest this year since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).

2022-10-20 14:01

Wishful thinking amid both positives and risks

The KOSPI has shown some recovery since July, recouping some of the losses of this year. The index fell 22.2 percent up until June, one-year Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) yields rose to 3 percent on June 30 and have fallen since, suggesting that the policy rate is likely to peak around the 3-percent level. The market also no longer expects the Fed to hike the interest rate aggressively given the economic slowdown. Further, market expectations appear to be based on the expectation that U.S. inflation has already peaked.

2022-08-22 15:19

Face the facts but don't be overwhelmed by them

The “Stockdale paradox” is about conflicting duality: accepting the brutal facts of reality but maintaining an unwavering faith in the endgame. Jim Stockdale, a high-ranking U.S. navy officer, survived an eight-year imprisonment in Hanoi during the Vietnam War without giving up hope of freedom while facing the brutal fact that he would not be returning home any time soon, and definitely not for Christmas that year.

2022-07-11 16:32

Time to be conservative

I am often asked how the U.S. dollar-Korean won exchange rate will move in the near term, especially by acquaintances who have to send money to the U.S. for their kids. They are worried about the recent rapid pace of the won's depreciation and are feeling the pain of having to spend 10 to 15 percent more in Korean won terms to send their kids to school in the U.S. Corporates, especially importers, are facing similar pressure. Their profits can fluctuate by over 10 percent depending on the time of buying and selling dollars.

2022-05-09 16:55

Growth likely to prevail despite headwinds

Economic news has been pretty grim lately. The Omicron variant has been seen to be more contagious than the Delta variant, necessitating restrictions and leading to lockdowns globally. Inflation remains high on the back of fiscal expansion, high commodity prices and global supply bottlenecks.

2022-01-12 17:01

Pragmatic approach to Bitcoin needed

A few months ago, when I was asked to write about Bitcoin, I declined to do so for two reasons: first, because I did not understand Bitcoin, and second, I was restricted from commenting on it given that our bank's research did not cover it.

2021-11-08 15:50

What we learned about Korea's economy during pandemic

The government and the Bank of Korea (BOK) have made vital policy changes aimed at withdrawing the liquidity that they released during the COVID-19 pandemic. The central bank has raised its base rate by 25 basis points, earlier than any other Asian economy, and the government tightened macro-prudential policy in order to control household debt. We believe that these efforts reflect a desire to normalize the economic cycle disrupted by the pandemic.

2021-10-04 13:04

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