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Tue, September 26, 2017 | 21:53

Opinion > Columnists > Lee Seong-hyon >

Washington and Beijing's options on North Korea

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test is seen by many as a “watershed” moment. If so, will Washington and Beijing’s calculus on North Korea change accordingly? Not likely, for the short term. At this time, the United States will likely continue its “maximum pressure” on North Korea, with harsher sanctions. For China, it will try to “manage” the situation, by its usual appeal for “calm” on all sides. In short, Washington and Beijing are not likely to diverge much from their preexisting preferences for the status quo. This is bad. But they think other options are worse. Despite the North’s latest a...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-09-05 17:56

Is Sino-N. Korea alliance more resilient than ROK-US alliance?

Last time, we examined why China has never officially proposed to abolish or abandon its alliance with North Korea, since 1961. We also looked at why China also makes pains not to draw attention to it. When comparing the China-North Korea alliance with the South Korea-U.S. alliance, one also finds, surprisingly, that the North Korea-China alliance was “designed,” from the beginning, to be very difficult to break than the alliance between South Korea and the U.S. In the case of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the treaty would be simply terminated if either side makes notifications of such inte...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-08-22 17:45

Are N. Korea and China still allies?

The news story that the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping underscored China's "blood alliance" with North Korea in his meeting with President Moon Jae-in is still generating a flurry of speculation in the public sphere. Whether Xi really used the particular word at the G-20 summit is one thing, but what is more important is whether Pyongyang and Beijing can be still defined as allies in this 21st century? And from an analytical perspective, the answer is yes. According to Cheong Wa Dae, Xi said, “China has maintained a blood alliance with North Korea. There have been many changes, ye...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-08-08 17:50

[Roundtable] N. Korea crosses red line, now into red zone

For the first time, there is a real danger with North Korea. It is no longer a game. South Korea should not be complacent. On the surface, the most important outcome of the summit between President Moon Jae-in and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump was that the U.S. offered its support for South Korea to “take the lead” in dealing with North Korea; the unspoken real meaning was that the U.S. must not carry out preemptive military operations on North Korea without the prior full consultation and full consent from South Korea.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-07-25 17:33

Moon Jae-in's foreign policy challenge

The G20 meeting in Germany served as a good platform for President Moon to display his flair for public diplomacy. But when it came to the actual outcome, a local newspaper gave a rather harsh pronouncement: “fruitless.” The categorical summary is not Moon’s fault, but rather it reflects the barren international environment with reduced room for diplomacy.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-07-11 17:05

Moon's bigger challenge in Washington

For President Moon Jae-in, crafting a successful photo-op moment with President Donald Trump is not the biggest challenge he will face during their first summit later this week. His bigger and more important challenge is to beat the widespread (and quite persistent) perception that he is another Roh Moo-hyun. It was psychiatrist Karl Menninger who observed decades ago that attitudes and perception are more important than facts and reality. President Moon has some work to do on Washington’s perception of him. Most of all, the Washington policy community remains quite suspicious that the Moon ...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-06-27 17:37

Moon's public diplomacy

Scenic Jeju island is one of South Korea’s best places for public diplomacy. It has natural beauty and a story to tell. If President Moon Jae-in has to visit Jeju Island for public diplomacy, the best timing could be one for the annual Jeju Forum and the other for the Jeju 4.3 Uprising memorial service. Public diplomacy is seen as a manifestation of soft power - the ability to shape a perception through attraction. Joseph Nye states that soft power is associated with intangible assets such as an attractive personality, culture, political values and institutions. In other words, a country's s...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-06-13 17:29

Envoy, THAAD and Korea-China ties

The seating arrangement “mishap” during the meeting between Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s special envoy, Lee Hae-chan, was seen as seemingly innocuous, but in fact, was a carefully planned diplomatic discourtesy. It was meant to send a signal to the newly minted Moon government that it should not entertain the idea that the change of government does not automatically mean that Seoul can now recover its relations with China, without having to halt the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here. As a presidentia...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-05-30 18:12

Washington Post on Moon

“On first day in office, South Korean president talks about going to North,” read the headline of a Washington Post report. It was a prominent report about Moon Jae-in’s first speech at the National Assembly after he was just sworn in as the new president. In the craft of journalism, it is the headline that carries monumental importance. It is the “summary” of the news in one sentence. It sets the tenor of the news. It “frames” the entire article that follows. Moreover, busy readers often only skim this and move on, forming a quick idea of the matter at stake. In a nutshell, a title in journ...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-05-16 17:52

Best way for Trump to persuade China to up the pressure on North Korea

Trump’s expression of willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un, essentially, should be seen as his signal to China, rather than to Kim. Trump’s North Korean policy, despite his harsh criticism of Obama’s handling of Pyongyang, is the same as Obama’s: to outsource the North Korean problem to China to solve. It won’t work. The U.S. and China don’t share enough strategic trust in East Asia, as evidenced by their discord on THAAD. Trump’s best strategy on North Korea is to make China less relevant in the game and enact his diplomatic rhetoric into action; meet Kim over hamburger.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-05-02 17:34

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