By Dr. Jeffrey I. Kim
The results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election can be recorded as one of the most unusual happenings in American history. Republican President Donald Trump would be only the third president since World War II who failed to win re-election.
Democratic Joe Biden will become the oldest person who won the presidency at the age of 78. Sen. Kamala Harris of California will be the first woman to serve as vice president. These will have people make a lot of guesswork about what will happen to the U.S. and the world.
Biden has defeated Trump to win the presidency. More than 80 million American citizens voted for Biden whereas about 75 million voted for Trump. The Electoral College votes for Biden are 306 but those for Trump are 232.
The candidate gaining 270 or more becomes the U.S. president. The U.S. General Services Administration has allowed the presidential transition to go ahead. Trump says he will leave the White House if the Electoral College of 538 votes for Biden.
Nevertheless, numerous challenges are awaiting Biden's presidential inauguration scheduled for January. The top challenge for Biden is to improve the diplomatic relationship with China. With Biden's new leadership, U.S. ties with China may improve somewhat but not dramatically.
Economy and security can never be separable. To maintain hegemony as the superpower, Biden would never give in. He is well aware of the seriousness of disputes over technology theft, the South China Sea, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
His administration would be tough on China. The U.S. and China will face a high degree of uncertainties and risks because of regional and global security conflicts.
In addition, the entire world will face increased uncertainties and risks in trade and economic growth. The coronavirus pandemic will continue to threaten human lives, to discourage economic activities and to reduce worldwide production and consumption.
Trade disputes are expected to rise sharply due to the beggar-thy-neighbor policy by every country. The World Trade Organization (WTO) will have to meet critical challenges in terms of structural reforms and its governance.
Unlike Trump, Biden is expected to promote multilateralism pursuing freer trade and investment. He may have better cards in mind to resolve the WTO problem. But it remains to be seen.
Biden would emphasize going with the allies on global security and denuclearization. While Biden may take a bit more flexible position toward China, his administration will engage in a fierce competition with China to maintain its status as the world's superpower in military and economy.
The U.S. and the U.N. are expected to put increasing pressure on North Korea to give up weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
China and the U.S. will remain at odds in dealing with the North Korea problem. In 2017 when South Korea allowed the U.S. to install its missile defense system, called THAAD, here, China launched economic retaliation against Korean firms.
Last week Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Seoul and met with President Moon Jae-in. Wang said, "The U.S. is not the only country in this world. There are 190 other countries in the world."
Under new global circumstances, Korea is facing increased uncertainties and risks in international trade and national security. The nation, therefore, is required to prepare well-thought-out policy plans.
South Korea cannot be allies with China and the U.S. at the same time. It will face increasing pressure to choose between the two countries. Its future choices will be much more limited and be a lot more difficult to choose.
On the conflicting issues of trade and security, Korea should cautiously navigate between China and the U.S. To improve the relations with China and North Korea, South Korea should be able to negotiate with the U.S. by utilizing the expertise of the globally known authorities who have far advanced knowledge and diplomatic skills.
Dr. Jeffrey I. Kim (ickim@skku.ac.kr), former foreign investment ombudsman, is a professor emeritus at Sungkyunkwan University. He earned a Ph.D. in economics at the University of Chicago and taught at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and the American University, Washington, D.C.
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Democratic Joe Biden will become the oldest person who won the presidency at the age of 78. Sen. Kamala Harris of California will be the first woman to serve as vice president. These will have people make a lot of guesswork about what will happen to the U.S. and the world.
Biden has defeated Trump to win the presidency. More than 80 million American citizens voted for Biden whereas about 75 million voted for Trump. The Electoral College votes for Biden are 306 but those for Trump are 232.
The candidate gaining 270 or more becomes the U.S. president. The U.S. General Services Administration has allowed the presidential transition to go ahead. Trump says he will leave the White House if the Electoral College of 538 votes for Biden.
Nevertheless, numerous challenges are awaiting Biden's presidential inauguration scheduled for January. The top challenge for Biden is to improve the diplomatic relationship with China. With Biden's new leadership, U.S. ties with China may improve somewhat but not dramatically.
Economy and security can never be separable. To maintain hegemony as the superpower, Biden would never give in. He is well aware of the seriousness of disputes over technology theft, the South China Sea, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
His administration would be tough on China. The U.S. and China will face a high degree of uncertainties and risks because of regional and global security conflicts.
In addition, the entire world will face increased uncertainties and risks in trade and economic growth. The coronavirus pandemic will continue to threaten human lives, to discourage economic activities and to reduce worldwide production and consumption.
Trade disputes are expected to rise sharply due to the beggar-thy-neighbor policy by every country. The World Trade Organization (WTO) will have to meet critical challenges in terms of structural reforms and its governance.
Unlike Trump, Biden is expected to promote multilateralism pursuing freer trade and investment. He may have better cards in mind to resolve the WTO problem. But it remains to be seen.
Biden would emphasize going with the allies on global security and denuclearization. While Biden may take a bit more flexible position toward China, his administration will engage in a fierce competition with China to maintain its status as the world's superpower in military and economy.
The U.S. and the U.N. are expected to put increasing pressure on North Korea to give up weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
China and the U.S. will remain at odds in dealing with the North Korea problem. In 2017 when South Korea allowed the U.S. to install its missile defense system, called THAAD, here, China launched economic retaliation against Korean firms.
Last week Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Seoul and met with President Moon Jae-in. Wang said, "The U.S. is not the only country in this world. There are 190 other countries in the world."
Under new global circumstances, Korea is facing increased uncertainties and risks in international trade and national security. The nation, therefore, is required to prepare well-thought-out policy plans.
South Korea cannot be allies with China and the U.S. at the same time. It will face increasing pressure to choose between the two countries. Its future choices will be much more limited and be a lot more difficult to choose.
On the conflicting issues of trade and security, Korea should cautiously navigate between China and the U.S. To improve the relations with China and North Korea, South Korea should be able to negotiate with the U.S. by utilizing the expertise of the globally known authorities who have far advanced knowledge and diplomatic skills.
Dr. Jeffrey I. Kim (ickim@skku.ac.kr), former foreign investment ombudsman, is a professor emeritus at Sungkyunkwan University. He earned a Ph.D. in economics at the University of Chicago and taught at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and the American University, Washington, D.C.
