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Mon, July 4, 2022 | 20:20
Columns
Trump summit, and thereafter
Posted : 2019-04-10 17:39
Updated : 2019-04-10 17:39
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By Na Jeong-ju
Politics editor

The upcoming summit between President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump will be a barometer of how Washington will deal with Pyongyang.

But there are reasons why this meeting cannot be as productive as Moon hopes it will be. Instead, he may come to face with the harsh reality when arranging a deal between the two sides while the U.S. remains skeptical about the North's commitment to denuclearization.

First of all, Trump and his hawkish security aides at the White House may use Moon's visit to give him a reality check, reaffirming no deals with North Korea without seeing Pyongyang give up its nuclear weapons.

For Moon, meeting with Trump is a crucial opportunity to seek his understanding of Seoul's proposal for a phased "good enough" deal with the North. Moon will probably make his case that this is a realistic option to achieve the ultimate goal of denuclearizing the country instead of the current "all-or-nothing" approach.

The question is whether the Trump administration is interested in easing sanctions on North Korea at this moment to advance the nuclear talks. Chances look slim that the U.S. will change its stance in the near future, given the North's attitude and the prevailing pessimism about its denuclearization pledges inside the U.S. It will probably adhere to the policy of putting "maximum pressure" on Pyongyang until the North accepts its demands.

In this context, it is hard to expect a drastic turnaround of the current situation from the Moon-Trump summit.

But there are hopeful signs as well.

The meeting with Trump should rather be understood as a chance to create a positive atmosphere for the resumption of dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang, and finally bring the nuclear talks back on track.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hinted at finding a "new path" after his summit with Trump in Hanoi ended without an agreement. Kim has since dispatched envoys to China, Russia and other "Communist" nations to possibly draw a big picture about economic development.

Trump may use Moon to see what the young leader thinks about his offer. Kim, too, may expect Moon to play a role in finding a breakthrough in the talks with Washington.

After returning from the U.S. trip, Moon may push for a meeting with Kim. This seems to be a natural course of action to take to break the deadlock. If things go smoothly, North Korea and the U.S. may be able to sit together again to prepare for another summit between their leaders, this time with more concrete and broader action plans on the table than in Hanoi.

Most of all, both North Korea and the U.S. have made efforts not to aggravate the situation since the Hanoi meeting. The fact that North Korea refused to return to the past suggests that Kim is still attached to dialogue with Washington.

One major factor at the upcoming summit is growing concerns inside the U.S. about South Korea's approach toward the North. Some U.S. experts even sympathize with South Korean ultraconservatives who claim their leader represents North Korea's interests.

While meeting with Trump and his aides, Moon does not need to be overly enthusiastic about pushing his agenda. One of the major topics at these meetings will probably be about seeking sanctions exemptions for the resumption of the long-stalled symbolic inter-Korean economic projects, such as Mount Geumgang tours and the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.

This could be a source of contention with Washington, which has vowed to keep sanctions intact until North Korea abandons its nuclear program in a complete, verifiable and irreversible way. Moon needs to have candid discussions with U.S. officials not to cause a rift in the alliance. At this point, the U.S. holds the key to inter-Korean peace. Moon probably knows this well.


Emailjj@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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