By Major General S B Asthana
The world is talking about the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a historic moment with hopes that it will bring peace to the Korean Peninsula.
Reading between the lines, beyond the niceties and magnificent optics displayed, some realities do emerge, which will indicate it is the beginning of a great gamble by both sides.
This issue had crossed the limit of being a bilateral one and it impacts other stakeholders as well, hence this may not be the last call on peace of the Korean Peninsula.
In real terms North Korea continues to be saddled with continued economic sanctions and the U.S. continues to be suspicious of implementation of complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID), hence it will lift sanctions only "when nukes are no longer an issue."
Both leaders can pat themselves on their backs as the U.S. has made Kim sign the document on denuclearization in a manner that suits it, and Kim has been able to get the offensive military exercises/war games off his mind at least for some time, having bought time for the next step.
A happy ending summit: Was there any other option?
The U.S. and North Korea have called the summit a historic success, but it was also a compulsion in light of a lack of alternatives. It was the only practical option because a failed summit would not have suited either side.
At face value, all the world leaders have expressed happiness over the summit and have hopes for a peaceful Korean Peninsula, but it needs to be analyzed whether their concerns have been met or otherwise.
The U.S. will continue to be apprehensive till it is verified that North Korea is no longer capable to nuke its mainland. The U.S. may have stopped, or at least slowed down, the continuation of military exercises, but it is yet to be clarified if it is going to remove the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from South Korea, which was a concern of China and Russia also.
North Korea, having signed the document, will be forced to think that with economic sanctions still in place, was it a big gamble to give away its only strategic leverage?
It looks too good to be true. It however remains to be seen if China will allow Kim to be stripped of all nukes. Kim can claim an accolade over making President Trump talk to him through nuclear blackmail. This will enhance his credibility in his country as well as in the global arena.
China, highlighting its influence, did talk of its efforts in getting both leaders together, but in a subtle message has indirectly shown concern about the reasonable security and safety of North Korea.
Kim had consulted President Xi Jinping twice before the summit, but it is not sure if the document signed conforms to the narrative of President Xi or even comes close. China will also be concerned about THAAD and continued sanctions, leaving an ambiguity to send their trade items and essentials to North Korea or otherwise.
Japan will continue to be skeptical of North Korea, because even if North Korea does denuclearize, the missile threat will continue to loom over its territory, notwithstanding a remark by President Trump that Kim has agreed to destroy a missile site.
South Korea will be happy as its efforts to get the two leaders across the table from each other have finally borne fruit, and there is a move forward. They would genuinely look for peace, as Seoul is within reach of conventional weapons of North Korea.
Russian may have to wait for clarification on the THAAD deployment, a concern they were airing earlier.
India will welcome a peaceful Korean Peninsula, but would be keen for some control on North Korea on alleged proliferation of missile technology to Pakistan.
It remains to be seen what the future will bring for the Korean Peninsula, but it was interesting to see the diplomatic negotiations at their best in the run-up to the summit.
It was a commendable diplomatic breakthrough after decades of hostility, but there is still no guarantee North Korea will follow it up.
Equally interesting were the two unpredictable leaders conducting themselves with grace and maturity in a well-choreographed event.
It will also be interesting to see how the U.S. will respond, after display of such niceties, to any leakages in sanctions by any third country. The final test will be the response of North Korea to the international inspectors of nukes.
Shashi Asthana is a veteran Indian infantry general (major general) with 40 years of varied experience in national and international fields. He now serves as chief instructor of all courses for military officers in the United Service Institute of India. He can be reached at hashiasthana29@gmail.com.
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Reading between the lines, beyond the niceties and magnificent optics displayed, some realities do emerge, which will indicate it is the beginning of a great gamble by both sides.
This issue had crossed the limit of being a bilateral one and it impacts other stakeholders as well, hence this may not be the last call on peace of the Korean Peninsula.
In real terms North Korea continues to be saddled with continued economic sanctions and the U.S. continues to be suspicious of implementation of complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID), hence it will lift sanctions only "when nukes are no longer an issue."
Both leaders can pat themselves on their backs as the U.S. has made Kim sign the document on denuclearization in a manner that suits it, and Kim has been able to get the offensive military exercises/war games off his mind at least for some time, having bought time for the next step.
A happy ending summit: Was there any other option?
The U.S. and North Korea have called the summit a historic success, but it was also a compulsion in light of a lack of alternatives. It was the only practical option because a failed summit would not have suited either side.
At face value, all the world leaders have expressed happiness over the summit and have hopes for a peaceful Korean Peninsula, but it needs to be analyzed whether their concerns have been met or otherwise.
The U.S. will continue to be apprehensive till it is verified that North Korea is no longer capable to nuke its mainland. The U.S. may have stopped, or at least slowed down, the continuation of military exercises, but it is yet to be clarified if it is going to remove the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from South Korea, which was a concern of China and Russia also.
North Korea, having signed the document, will be forced to think that with economic sanctions still in place, was it a big gamble to give away its only strategic leverage?
It looks too good to be true. It however remains to be seen if China will allow Kim to be stripped of all nukes. Kim can claim an accolade over making President Trump talk to him through nuclear blackmail. This will enhance his credibility in his country as well as in the global arena.
China, highlighting its influence, did talk of its efforts in getting both leaders together, but in a subtle message has indirectly shown concern about the reasonable security and safety of North Korea.
Kim had consulted President Xi Jinping twice before the summit, but it is not sure if the document signed conforms to the narrative of President Xi or even comes close. China will also be concerned about THAAD and continued sanctions, leaving an ambiguity to send their trade items and essentials to North Korea or otherwise.
Japan will continue to be skeptical of North Korea, because even if North Korea does denuclearize, the missile threat will continue to loom over its territory, notwithstanding a remark by President Trump that Kim has agreed to destroy a missile site.
South Korea will be happy as its efforts to get the two leaders across the table from each other have finally borne fruit, and there is a move forward. They would genuinely look for peace, as Seoul is within reach of conventional weapons of North Korea.
Russian may have to wait for clarification on the THAAD deployment, a concern they were airing earlier.
India will welcome a peaceful Korean Peninsula, but would be keen for some control on North Korea on alleged proliferation of missile technology to Pakistan.
It remains to be seen what the future will bring for the Korean Peninsula, but it was interesting to see the diplomatic negotiations at their best in the run-up to the summit.
It was a commendable diplomatic breakthrough after decades of hostility, but there is still no guarantee North Korea will follow it up.
Equally interesting were the two unpredictable leaders conducting themselves with grace and maturity in a well-choreographed event.
It will also be interesting to see how the U.S. will respond, after display of such niceties, to any leakages in sanctions by any third country. The final test will be the response of North Korea to the international inspectors of nukes.
Shashi Asthana is a veteran Indian infantry general (major general) with 40 years of varied experience in national and international fields. He now serves as chief instructor of all courses for military officers in the United Service Institute of India. He can be reached at hashiasthana29@gmail.com.
