Advantage North Korea

By Sandip Kumar Mishra

It was reported that an Ilyushin IL-62 M Russian Air Force jet traveled from Moscow to Pyongyang on July 31 and stayed there for 36 hours. That happened just a few days after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's visit to Pyongyang and his participation in a military parade hosted by North Korea on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement.

There is no clarification from Russia or North Korea on who traveled aboard the Russian jet or what was the purpose of the flight. But it has been speculated that the trip was related to a weapons deal. There is speculation that Russia, at war with Ukraine, is looking for ammunition from North Korea. The North has artillery shells and rockets which Russia needs right now. The U.S. has already accused North Korea of supplying arms and ammunition to Russia in the Ukraine war.

According to the United Nations sanctions committee, Russia restarted its oil supply to North Korea in December 2022. And until June 2023, Moscow has supplied around 67,000 barrels to North Korea. In 2023, Russia also resumed grain exports to North Korea. This shows that the proximity between North Korea and Russia has improved significantly in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.

All attempts to isolate Russia may have had an impact. But North Korea is smiling at the developments as it has got a golden opportunity to get reconnected to Russia. It is important to note that because of international sanctions and border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea's external trade plummeted to $710 million in 2021. Even though it has improved a bit in 2022 by reaching $1.59 billion, it is still quite meager.

Thus, any arms deal between North Korea and Russia would give some relief to the North. Actually, North Korea took the visiting Russian defense minister to a weapons exhibition that included nuclear-capable missiles and military drones and the possibility of an arms deal appears real.

Over the last two years, North Korea appears to have become less isolated, not only because of the Ukraine crisis, but also because of the U.S.-China rivalry. With increasing efforts to decouple or de-risk from China, North Korea has got a window to improve its utility as well as connections with China. Actually, in the "Victory Day" parade in North Korea on July 27, a Chinese delegation led by Politburo member Li Hongzhong also participated.

Li delivered a personal letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping to Kim Jong-un. Contests between the U.S. and China on issues such as Taiwan, South China Sea, trade manipulations and critical technologies have provided more strategic possibilities to North Korea to move closer to China. Overall, the Ukraine crisis and the U.S.-China rivalry have made a quasi-triple alliance among North Korea, China and Russia a reality which was dormant and minimal in the past.

The Trump administration, after a failed summit meeting at Hanoi with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2019, tried to isolate the North and increase pressure and sanctions on it. The Biden administration took more than a year to formulate its North Korea policy and practically reintroduced the Obama era's policy of 'strategic patience' plus continuation of the policy of the Trump era. Overall, the goal of the U.S. administration in the post-Hanoi period has been to push North Korea for denuclearization through sanctions.

However, the result has been quite the opposite. North Korea since early 2022 has had more than 100 missile tests and despite economic hardships along with dealing with the pandemic, the Kim Jong-un regime appears to be politically more stable. Another objective of the U.S. foreign policy to isolate North Korea also failed to get the desired outcome as North Korea appears to have renewed closeness and exchanges with China and Russia.

On Aug. 18, the U.S. hosted the Japanese and South Korean leaders at the Camp David in a trilateral summit but this summit would not be able to stop North Korea to forge more proximity with China and Russia, rather it would do the opposite.

Actually the goal of foreign policy at the basic level is to consolidate your friends and not allow your rivals to come together. The U.S. might claim success that its allies and friends are more closely connected to one another at present but it cannot deny that it has been unable to stop its rivals from coming together. It even may be said that the U.S. policies have also been responsible for making it easier for its rivals to come together.

China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan and several other rivals are more connected now with one another and the spread of the U.S. rivals and their connections are growing rather than getting reduced. In the changing global rivalry and competitive Indo-Pacific, the equations are changing through moves and countermoves of big players but at least at this point of time, North Korea appears to have an advantageous position.

The author is an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, India, and could be reached at sandipmishra10@gmail.com.