Costs of contesting China

The Korea Times

The Korea Times

Opinion

Sandip Kumar Mishra

Costs of contesting China

Posted : 2023-04-27 16:35

Updated : 2023-04-27 16:35

By Sandip Kumar Mishra

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said in an interview with Reuters on April 18 that the increased tension around Taiwan is because of China's attempt to change the status quo and expressed his disagreement with any such Chinese move. He went further and said that "the Taiwan issue is not simply an issue between China and Taiwan but, like the issues of North Korea, it is a global issue." It is the most emphatic statement by a South Korean President on the Taiwan issue since South Korea's normalization of relations with China in 1992. Expected diplomatic exchanges between the two countries were unleashed after the statement.

Actually, after coming to power, the Yoon Suk Yeol administration adopted a posture that creates displeasure in China. In December 2022, South Korea came out with its own document for its Indo-Pacific strategy, which was avoided by the previous South Korean administration. The Yoon government through this document underlined that South Korea would no longer remain a reluctant and passive actor in the evolving nature of Indo-Pacific politics. Even though the document says that China is going to be a key partner in achieving prosperity in the Indo-Pacific, the very release of the Indo-Pacific strategy document was a clear indication of South Korea's abandonment of caution, which the previous South Korean administration maintained vis-a-vis China.

The release of South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy is seen also in Yoon's participation in the NATO meeting last year and his several statements in which he was positive toward South Korea becoming a member of Quad, as well as the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and pursuing South Korea's own nuclear weapons program.

South Korea's bold moves on issues that are sensitive to China means that South Korea has decided to overlook the costs of such moves. South Korea is aware that being overtly part of a contest with China may affect the South Korean economy and its dealings with North Korea. However, South Korea has apparently decided that it will not remain hostage to these factors and will play a proactive role in shaping the Indo-Pacific order.

In the post-THAAD period, South Korea's economic exchanges with China have been on a decline. For example, the share of China in the total external trade of South Korea has come down to below 20 percent in the first quarter of 2023 which was almost 26.8 percent in 2018. South Korea's exports to China in the first quarter of 2023 have been almost 30 percent less than in 2022. The trade balance of South Korea with China has also come down from a record high of $55.6 billion in 2018 to $1.2 billion in 2022. Thus, South Korea thinks that it must try to diversify and look for options beyond China.

In dealing with North Korea also, South Korea thinks the role of China has not been satisfactory. It is believed that China has not been putting enough pressure on North Korea to give up its nuclear programs. In 2022, when North Korea had more than 80 missile tests, China remained largely aloof. In a recent statement on April 18, Chinese President Xi Jinping asked for the strengthening of communication with North Korea as regional and international situations have been changing in a complicated way. Recently, China also tried to block a live online broadcast of an informal UNSC meeting in which North Korea's human rights issue was supposed to be discussed.

South Korea's calculation to become more proactive, thus, has a logic to it. However, it must also be cautioned that South Korea's trade with China would remain substantial and in case new political frictions do not come up, its bilateral trade with China may rebound and the trade balance also improve. Also, the diversion of economic exchanges with China may be easier said than done. It is not going to be easy to find new destinations and even if they are found, it will take a long time to do so. Furthermore, in terms of China's non-cooperative attitude in dealing with North Korea, it must also be underlined that though China does not put sufficient pressure on North Korea to give up its nuclear and missile programs or refrain from provocative behavior, a contest between South Korea and China means that it may encourage or support North Korea in these activities, making it more problematic for South Korea.

South Korea, thus, needs to be aware of complicated realities and try to tread forward carefully in its dealings with China. If South Korea moves without being sufficiently aware of the economic and strategic costs of its bold moves, it will be detrimental to South Korean national interests. It is true that there were anxieties in being ambivalent but there are costs also of the aspiration to be one of the proactive leaders of Indo-Pacific articulation.

The author is associate professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India and can be reached at sandipmishra10@gmail.com.